We have a new page to offer where the sims will be updated throughout the day. You can find it here, the link will be the same every day (for bookmarking purposes), and all the tables are pre-sorted for you.
STACK IT UP
Stack optimal probabilities are calculated using each team’s top six projected hitters.
HIGHEST OPTIMAL PROBABILITY TEAM STACK: DODGERS
The Los Angeles Dodgers team stack sits atop the optimal board for tonight’s slate as they will be opposed by Sean Manaea and the San Diego Padres. Manaea has been pretty underwhelming since becoming a Padre as his ERA approaches five, but his expected ERA and FIP hover around 4.00, so there could be some positive regression. To start that off, the Dodgers aren’t the desirable opponent. He is allowing the long ball at the highest rate in his career, backed up by his allowed Barrel% and HardHit%, both in pretty rough spots with a 9.2%/41.8% split.
The Dodgers feature one of baseball’s best offenses: they rank first in wOBA, wRC+, and runs scored and second in ISO for the year. They have ranked in the top ten in those same four categories over the past two weeks, so if you want to consider that a drop-off, go ahead. That probably won’t matter, though, as Manaea has been a trainwreck in his previous two appearances against the Dodgers. In a combined 8.1 innings pitched, Manaea racked up 14 earned runs against him in a pair of disaster showings. Yikes! The Dodgers stack won’t be cheap as you’ll have to pay for the talent, but given how they have faired against Manaea alone, it is worth taking a shot on this stack as their expected ownership is not in a terrible spot.
BREWERS LOOKING TO STAY IN THE HUNT
The Milwaukee Brewers team stack also finds itself near the top of the optimal board as they’ll go up against Madison Bumgarner and the Arizona Diamondbacks. Bumgarner has been dreadful lately as we saw his August ERA approach 10.00 over five starts. Bumgarner has the worst xERA, the second worst xFIP, and the fourth worst strikeout rate among all qualified pitchers. He has no momentum in his favor and looks to be spiraling out of control in the likely last year of his storied career.
The Brewers have not been anything too special at the plate lately as they look to stay in the hunt for the playoffs. Over the past two weeks, they have been about league average in production categories of wOBA and wRC+. We see some upside with them power-wise, given their ISO, Barrel%, and HardHit% during that same stretch. They have struck out a near 25% rate as well, which would typically be worrisome, but not against Bumgarner. This stack is reasonably affordable as their average salary looks to be below $4000 on DraftKings, but we anticipate this stack’s ownership to come in around the 15%-20% range. It is hard to picture a scenario where Bumgarner doesn’t allow something to this offense, so if you are comfortable sacrificing the ownership, then this is a high upside play to make while offering financial flexibility.
