The Spread Sharp Report: Patriots-Dolphins Week 1 Has Popular Play
Almost all of the money is on the Under at DraftKings
The betting public seems to be split on picking a side for the Week 1 contest between the New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins, but there is one wager bettors are high on ahead of Sunday’s clash in South Beach.
DraftKings Sportsbook revealed Friday night that 92% of the money wagered on the total is on the Under 46.5. It represents 56% of tickets, indicating there are a few big bets on the Under. BetMGM Sportsbook shared Friday it took a more modest amount of money on the Under (52%), though its total was a full point less at 45.5. (Hint: If you’re interested in the Under, that’s not the place to bet it.) WynnBet Sportsbook also received the majority of its handle (57%) and tickets (52%) on Under 46.
The Patriots enter Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday afternoon as a 3.5-point road underdog at most major sportsbooks. The Dolphins are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 meetings with the Patriots in Miami.
For bettors who picked a side on DraftKings, New England represents the most money. Fifty-seven percent of the spread handle is on Bill Belichick’s team to cover while an identical 57% of the moneyline handle is on the Patriots to win straight up. The public’s split decision is represented as Miami, despite more money being on New England, accounting for more spread and moneyline tickets. The Fins make up 58% of spread bets and 55% of moneyline tickets on DraftKings.
The biggest one-sided split in favor of the Patriots is at BetMGM. Seventy-eight percent of moneyline bets are on the Patriots to win straight up, which represents 54% of the money. The Dolphins, however, sweep the board at WynnBet with more spread tickets (59%) and handle (62%) along with more moneyline bets (57%) and money (64%).
In regards to the public’s mindset on the total, questions pertaining to the Patriots’ offense might cause many to doubt New England’s ability to score points. The Patriots still have yet to reveal their offensive play-caller after the departure of Josh McDaniels, and New England’s offense spent much of training camp struggling to find consistency. The offensive line, which has a few new pieces and moving parts, was among the team’s biggest disappointments of the preseason. Struggling to protect Mac Jones obviously will have a key role in New England’s ability to score points.
Additionally, the Dolphins’ offense presents some questions of its own. Sure, Miami is much better around quarterback Tua Tagovailoa with the addition of wideouts Tyreek Hill and Cedrick Wilson, along with running backs like Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert. But bettors might question how those pieces will look in their first real game together and how offensive guru Mike McDaniel will fare in his first-ever game as an NFL head coach.
All told, it’s fair for bettors to equate those storylines to a popular bet on the Under.
