Commanders-Bears DFS Showdown: Slate Strategy Analysis

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October 13, 2022

Free up-to-date projections and optimization tools for all NFL DFS slates are available at DailyRoto.com. For bookmarking purposes, optimal probability simulations and expected ownership projections will be available on a continuous link here.MULTIPLIER TARGETS:

Carson Wentz is the most expensive player on the DraftKings board for tonight’s slate and will be highly owned. Although Wentz has not been good, he does have three games under his belt where he has passed for at least 310 yards. He has a few strong stacking options at his disposal if you were to play him at the multiplier and offers viable upside, even though everyone expects this to be one ugly game.

Justin Fields will cost $15,000 at the multiplier and looks to have the highest multiplier optimal probability while being the highest owned there. His arm is undependable, as he is 31st in the league in passing yards with only three touchdowns to his name. He’s rushed at least seven times in each game, but we’d need to see more out of his arm to be completely comfortable with playing him at the multiplier, given the damage Wentz can do. 

Curtis Samuel has emerged as the Commanders’ WR1 and would only cost $12,300 at the multiplier, offering some financial flexibility. Samuel has averaged eight targets per game and has proven to be a strong PPR option. Although he hasn’t seen similar PPR production, Terry McLaurin is still a premier wide receiver and shouldn’t be entirely written off at $13,500 at the multiplier.

According to our optimal simulations, David Montgomery sees the highest utilization on the Bears and offers you the highest upside of any non-QB on this slate. We anticipate him coming in under-owned at both the multiplier and the flex, as he could approach 18-20 touches total. He is a bit more expensive than we would like, but there are plenty of cheaper options available on this slate to fill out your lineups comfortably

FLEX OPTIONS:

McLaurin and Samuel headline Wentz’s pass-catching options, but with Jahan Dotson out, there is a spot to infuse some financial flexibility. Cam Sims, at $1,400, could have an excellent opportunity after eating up most of Dotson’s snaps in Week 5. Dyami Brown stole the show with his two touchdowns, but Sims saw 17 more snaps, so with Brown listed as questionable on the injury report, Sims could be in line for more targets regardless of Brown’s status

All three of Washington’s running backs are priced above $6,400 on DraftKings, with Antonio Gibson leading the way at $8,600. That’s a tough price to pay as Brian Robinson Jr. has surpassed him in the backfield, and JD McKissic still eats most pass-catching opportunities. McKissic might offer the highest upside out of these three plays, as he has been targeted at least seven times in three of the five games this season. Robinson could be a lower-owned play with upside if Washington looks to establish the ground game early and often with him.

Khalil Herbert, at $6,200, looks too expensive for a backup running back that likely will only see five carries with a few targets coming his way if he’s lucky. While $6,400 for McKissic makes more sense over Herbert.

Choosing between the Bears’ wide receivers is difficult since they all have been underwhelming. Darnell Mooney, at $7,600, is the best player and could offer some value after having been targeted at least five times over the last three games.

Equanimeous St. Brown has been the WR2 but still feels too much as he has only recorded six receptions this season. Plus, his snap count dropped from 95% to 62% between weeks four and five, which is a reason for worry.

Dante Pettis, Velus Jones Jr., and Ihmir Smith-Marsette have proven nothing, so with N’Keal Harry potentially being activated tonight, he offers value because he isn’t there. Matt Eberflus wouldn’t guarantee Harry to be in the lineup, but he provides more potential at $200 than the others if activated.

John Bates and Cole Turner saw similar snap counts and equal targets in Week 5. Bates at $3,000 offers value, but Turner at $200 could be that much better.

Cole Kmet is finally getting volume, even though it isn’t much. Ten targets over his last three games isn’t great production, but someone will have to catch the ball in this ugly game.

Thumbnail photo via Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

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