Steelers-Dolphins DFS Showdown: Injury and Depth Analysis

by

October 23

Free up-to-date projections and optimization tools for all NFL DFS slates are available at DailyRoto.com. For bookmarking purposes, optimal probability simulations and expected ownership projections will be available on a continuous link here.QUARTERBACK:

Tua Tagovailoa is back under center for the Miami Dolphins as they take on the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday Night Football. A lot has been made about Tua’s concussion situation, and now it appears he is fully healthy. He has premier weapons capable of dominating a game and, in turn, aiding Tua’s fantasy value. Kenny Pickett will be under center for Pittsburgh, who has underwhelmed in his brief NFL career and doesn’t add a serious rushing upside. 

RUNNING BACK:

Najee Harris has been a complete disappointment thus far, as he only has averaged 44 yards per game on the ground. He’ll see about 14 carries and three targets tonight, but we had much loftier expectations for him this season. A lot has been made about Jaylen Warren’s potential, even though we have not seen the uptick in volume we have been waiting for. Until we see something different, about five carries and potentially a target or two is reasonable.

Raheem Mostert has cemented himself as Miami’s RB1, averaging nearly 16 carries per game over the last three weeks. He’ll see a few targets directed his way, but we’ll look at some potential carry upside as the Dolphins are expected to be playing with a lead. Chase Edmonds has only combined for three carries and two receptions over the past two weeks, so it appears the hopeful RB1 stock has come crashing down. 

WIDE RECEIVER:

Diontae Johnson has one of the highest target upsides in football, but he currently does not have a quarterback who can reliantly give him the ball in positions to succeed. He has double-digit targets in four of six games this season, but the yardage and touchdown production simply has not been there. George Pickens offers potential as a young, highly-touted receiver who has averaged more than seven targets over the past four games. He is the total package, just a matter of if Pickett can efficiently give him optimal opportunities. Chase Claypool is one of the better WR3s you’ll come across and offers a vertical threat while having seen at least six targets in five of six games this season. Miles Boykin will see some rotational snaps but nothing meaningful from a production standpoint. 

Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle make up the entire Dolphins’ offense and can easily eclipse a combined 60%+ target share in some games. Last week we saw Hill and Waddle combined for 79% of the Dolphins’ passing yards which speaks to their upside. Waddle is listed as questionable for tonight, but there are no indications of him not playing. Trent Sherfield will be the WR3, with Cedrick Wilson and River Cracraft also rotating. Sherfield will have the highest target upside among the three, but none will impact the offense. Essentially just a body to allow Waddle and Hill to work.

TIGHT END:

Pat Freiermuth has fared well in Pittsburgh’s offense this season and has three games where he has been targeted more than seven times as a popular red zone option. Zach Gentry will be the TE2 but shouldn’t see more than a target.

Mike Gesicki is coming off a two-touchdown game after five games of disappointing target volume. Durham Smythe ate up a lot of that production. Still, he was out last week and continues to be questionable, which will impact Gesicki’s volume immensely, so keep an eye out for injury reports later in the day. Hunter Long will have a minimal role if Smythe cannot go again. 

Thumbnail photo via Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

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