College Football Playoff Rankings vs. National Championship Odds
With No. 4 Clemson and No. 6 Alabama going down last Saturday, it allowed the College Football Playoff committee to recalibrate the top of their rankings, resulting in a top four that’s more satisfying and “fair” to the public at large. There’s still a long way to go but let’s look at how the CFP Rankings compare to the 14 teams listed on the FanDuel futures market. The Likely Contenders
With their impressive win over last week’s No. 1, the Georgia Bulldogs jumped from No. 3 to the top of this week’s CFP Rankings. They also gained some separation in the FBS Championship odds at FanDuel, where they moved from +200 a week ago to the odds-on favorite at -120.
With double-digit wins over a pair of top-six teams, UGA has given themselves room for a slip-up along the way, however unlikely that may seem at the moment.
The Ohio State Buckeyes held steady at No. 2 in the CFP Rankings but have seen their odds shift from +200, tied with UGA, to +250. While there’s some distance between the Dawgs and the Bucks, there’s an even wider gap from OSU to the rest of college football.
This sets up a very juicy season finale against the No. 3 Michigan Wolverines on Thanksgiving weekend. Two of the four teams ahead of them lost, which allowed the Wolverines to move up two slots from last week, and at +800, they’re also third according to the futures market.
This is where the betting odds begin to differ from the CFP Rankings. So, who’s next, according to FanDuel?
The sportsbook has the No. 5 Tennessee Volunteers as fourth at +1400, not a massive difference from +1000 a week ago. Why?
A probable loss at Georgia was baked into last week’s odds. Right now, the Vols are the most likely non-conference champ to make the playoffs, and the losses by Alabama and Clemson were very good for their CFP hopes.
The No. 6 Oregon Ducks, another team whose only loss is to No. 1 Georgia, is fifth in terms of odds at +2500, which has shortened from last week (+4000). The Ducks might be the biggest beneficiary from Clemson’s loss and tumble out of the top four. Control of destiny is within reach.
Staying in the Pac-12, the No. 8 USC Trojans could be standing in Oregon’s way in the Pac-12 Championship Game and are a legitimate contender, even if their ability to run the table is in doubt. While their +6000 odds are seventh-best, they’ve held steady from last week.
The Potential UpstartsDid I forget No. 4 TCU (+8000)? Nope.
Despite moving up three spots in the CFP Rankings from No. 7, the Horned Frogs’ odds remain unchanged. Why? Because the playoffs don’t start today, and the betting lines have them knocked off their perch as early as this week in Austin, where they’re a 7-point underdog to three-loss Texas.
They’re in a position where they’re in the playoffs if they win out–but we knew that last week–and that’s only part of the equation. Can they actually finish 13-0? The oddsmakers have their doubts, which would render this week’s ranking meaningless.
Does anyone else control their destiny?
Possibly No. 12 UCLA, who are under-ranked and undervalued at +20000, tied with a two-loss Pac-12 team for the 12th-best odds. The Bruins have a home date with USC in two weeks which could set up a Pac-12 Champ. Game vs. Oregon. How are they left out if they win both to go 12-1?
I’ve skipped one team, No. 7 LSU, who has the sixth-best odds at +4000, which is way too short (+25000 last week), in my opinion, despite last week’s impressive win.
Could a two-loss SEC Champ make the playoffs? Of course, we wrote about it last week, but the Tigers are only a 3-point favorite at Arkansas this Saturday. And even if they win, they still have to knock off No. 1 Georgia to be in the conversation. A tall task in year one of the Brian Kelly era.
Could a two-loss non-SEC Champ make the playoffs? That’s not happening, which means No. 9 Alabama will need help to cash in on their +8000 odds, a considerable shift from last week’s near-favorite status at +300.
Is there anyone else with a chance?
Right behind Bama in the polls and odds is No. 10 Clemson, who stumbled from No. 4 (+1600) and who now have odds of +10000 despite still having a path to a 12-1 season with a Power 5 conference title, which was good enough for previous Tiger teams to make the CFP.
No. 15 North Carolina’s odds also took a hit, going from +8000 to +15000. What did they do wrong? Nothing. But adding a win over No. 3 undefeated Clemson in the ACC Championship Game is no longer on the table as a resume booster. They probably need more help than Clemson.
FanDuel is still giving No. 13 Utah a shot, albeit a longshot, at +20000. I don’t see it. Not that they don’t deserve to be ranked 13th but a two-loss Pac-12 team? Too much needs to happen for that to play out.
Finally, there’s No. 11 Ole Miss at +25000 (from +10000 last week), who also pay for the sins of circumstance.
Because LSU beat Alabama, the Rebels no longer control their destiny. Even if they win out, a victory over the Tide on Saturday carries less cachet, and they would need an LSU loss to set up a matchup with No. 1 Georgia. The Rebs would see a vast odds shift if Ole Miss wins and LSU loses.
