AL Cy Young Futures Value Pick: You Won't Believe Joe Musgrove's Price Tag

There is no shortage of quality pitchers in the National League. Max Scherzer, Corbin Burnes, Sandy Alcantara, and Julio Urias are just a few of the names sure to come up in Cy Young discussions. Still, there are players further down the FanDuel Sportsbook futures list with a legitimate shot at upsetting the field. 

Looking for a value arm in the AL to challenge for hardware? Look no further

Chief among them is San Diego Padres stud Joe Musgrove.

Musgrove is coming off a career-best year, posting a new benchmark in ERA while making his first All-Star appearance. He is a workhorse for the Padres, and if his strikeout metrics improve to previous highs, there could be no stopping the former Pittsburgh Pirate from claiming his first personal award.

Coincidentally, Musgrove’s stats have been unchanged over the past couple of seasons. The 30-year-old has totaled 181 innings pitched, with a 1.08 WHIP, and has seen his FIP dropping marginally from 3.70 to 3.59.

Further, the former 46th-overall selection in the draft has sterling advanced metrics. Last year, Musgrove ranked in the top 12% of MLB pitchers in average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, and fastball spin, highlighting his ability to keep batters on their toes. Like his traditional metrics, Musgrove is incredibly consistent with his stuff, keeping him on the elite end of the spectrum over the past few seasons.

However, 2022 saw a dip in the former Houston Astro’s strikeouts per nine innings and strikeout rate. His K/9 fell to a three-year low of 9.1, dropping his percentage to 24.9%, slightly above his career average.

Three years ago, he accumulated a 33.1% strikeout rate with 12.1 punchouts per nine innings. Granted, 2020 was an abbreviated sample, but if Musgrove could recapture that elite form, he will separate himself from the pack in the NL. 

Top-end strikeout metrics aren’t a prerequisite for Cy Young winners, but combined with his other elite metrics, could be the difference for Musgrove. At +5000, he’s worth a flyer that it all comes together in 2023.

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