NHL Playoffs: Minnesota Wild vs. Dallas Stars Game 5 Betting Preview & Picks
The Minnesota Wild and Dallas Stars are tied up at two in their opening-round series of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. These teams have alternated wins through the first four games, with Game 5 scheduled at the American Airlines Arena in Dallas on Tuesday night.
Neither squad has a clear advantage analytically, with the Stars and Wild reserving their best efforts for the road. Still, a distinct trend supports that tonight’s pivotal contest should be a low-scoring affair.
Wild @ Stars Game Information- Location: American Airlines Arena | Dallas, TX
- Time: 8 pm ET | TV: SN360, TBS
The Wild and Stars are two of the best defensive squads in the NHL. Both finished top eight in high-danger and scoring opportunities allowed in the regular season, carrying that superiority into Round 1. Chances remain at a premium, with these teams combining for 17 or fewer quality opportunities in three of the four games.
This accomplishment is even more noteworthy because the only time they eclipsed that threshold was in the double-overtime contest in the series opener. When adjusted for 60 minutes, Minnesota and Dallas combine for just 13.7 per game.
A limited supply of chances hasn’t impacted scoring, and surprisingly, two of the four games in this Central Division matchup have gone OVER the total. Dallas scored seven in Game 2, surpassing the 5.5 total themselves, while Minny cashed five in Game 3, sending Game 3 over the number.
With the stakes even higher on Tuesday night, we’re anticipating another stout defensive performance. However, this time we’re expecting goal-scoring to reflect that effort.
Wild @ Stars Odds on FanDuel- Spread: Wild +1.5 (-220) | Stars -1.5 (+180)
- Moneyline: Stars +116 | Stars -140
- Total: OVER 5.5 (+104) | UNDER 5.5 (-128)
The UNDER has been bought up to -128, and rightfully so. The Wild and Stars have tightened their defensive zone coverage, totaling a paltry 21 high-danger chances between them in Games 3 and 4. The Wild averaged 6.5 quality opportunities, and the Stars averaged 4.0.
More importantly, these teams can’t maintain their scoring pace with diminished chances. Throughout the regular season, the Wild averaged 20.9 scoring and 8.6 high-danger opportunities at five-on-five, with a 7.7% shooting percentage. So far this postseason, production is down to 20.0 and 8.3, respectively, with their shooting percentage increasing to 8.3%.
Likewise, Dallas has seen a substantive decrease in production, with scoring and high-danger chances down to 20.8 and 7.3 from 24.0 and 10.0. However, the Stars’ goals-per-game is basically unchanged.
Wild @ Stars Picks- Under 5.5 -128
- 60-minute tie +330
- Matt Boldy Any Time Goal Scorer +230
With regression looming for both squads, we expect Game 5 to stay UNDER the total. Moreover, we’re betting overtime is needed to determine a winner in a tightly contested divisional showdown like this one. This series has been played almost exclusively in the neutral zone, and each team will lean into its defensive shell instead of pushing the pace for more chances.
Lastly, we’re taking a stance on Matt Boldy as an any-time goal scorer. The second-year pro finished second on the team in scoring, totaling 31 goals in 81 games, but has yet to find the back of the net in the playoffs.
Boldy has elevated his production, attempting seven shots in the first two games and averaging 4.3 per game. Although his on-ice PDO has crashed, falling to .958, Boldy has sustained his solid analytics play. Thus, he’s a progression candidate and should break through on Tuesday night.
