NBA Player Props: Will Embiid Continue His Scoring Dominance in Celtics-Sixers Potential Deciding Game?

A pair of elimination games highlight Thursday’s NBA postseason schedule as the Philadelphia 76ers and Denver Nuggets look to close out their respective series against the Boston Celtics and Phoenix Suns.

Using SportsGrid’s Player Props Model, I’ve highlighted three top plays, starting with Philadelphia’s star big man.

Note: All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

PHI Joel Embiid OVER 30.5 Points vs. Celtics (-104)

SportsGrid Model Rating = 4.5/5 Stars
Model Projection = 33.1

Boston has had no answer for the league MVP, Embiid scoring 33 and 34 points, respectively, over the past two games, resulting in 76er victories. The 29-year-old is getting to the line at will, attempting double-digit free throws in each of Games 3-5. As the scene shifts back to Philadelphia for Game 6, I think Embiid continues his aggressive approach as he looks to lead the Sixers to their first Eastern Conference Finals since 2001. Give me the OVER.

DEN Jamal Murray OVER 0.5 Steals vs. Suns (-225)

SportsGrid Model Rating = 3/5 Stars
Model Projection = 1.2

Phoenix is averaging 11.4 turnovers in the series, with Murray recording at least one swipe in three straight games and four of his past five. That’s enough for me to back the Canadian despite the -225 betting line. Give me Jamal Murray OVER 0.5 steals.

BOS Al Horford OVER 1.5 Made Threes vs. 76ers (-156)

SportsGrid Model Rating = 3/5 Stars
Model Projection = 2.1

After declaring himself an “elite shooter,” Horford went scoreless in Game 5, missing all seven of his three-point attempts. Despite that forgettable performance, I will give Big Al a look tonight with the Celtics’ season on the line. The veteran made at least two triples in two straight games before Tuesday’s clunker, including a 5-7 effort in Game 3. Horford’s volume has also been encouraging, with the 36-year-old attempting seven or more treys in four consecutive outings. I think Horford responds, and I like him to go OVER tonight’s 1.5 made threes prop.