NBA Playoffs: Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics Game 7 Best Bets

by

May 29, 2023

The Boston Celtics erased a 3-0 series deficit against the Miami Heat, and they’ll have a chance to close out the series tonight on their home floor.

All odds courtesy of the FanDuel Sportsbook. 

Miami Heat (+245) vs. Boston Celtics (-300) Total: 203.5 (O-110, U-110)

Boston is looking to become the first team in NBA history to erase a 3-0 deficit, and they’ll have the chance to do that tonight after defeating Miami in three straight games. Game 6 ended on a controversial note at the buzzer, with the Celtics making the final shot to send it to a decisive Game 7. Even though both sides have won three straight games at separate times in this series, this matchup is much more even than the results or their regular season standings indicate. 

The Celtics are listed as home favorites on the moneyline and spread tonight. Boston is listed at -300 on the moneyline, followed by being 7-point favorites on the spread. The line opened with Boston favored by 8.5 points but has since fallen to seven points, with some money coming in on Miami to cover the number. 

Miami looked like a different team in Game 6 than the one we saw in Games 4 and 5. It just so happened that Boston matched them and ultimately came out on top. Every second matters, and that’s been a big talking point since the C’s escaped Game 6 with a win. 

Boston is an elite basketball team when they’re firing on all cylinders, and they’ve proven to be the more talented squad over the last three games. Still, Miami’s work ethic and elite coaching will pay dividends in an all-or-nothing Game 7. Momentum in sports can be halted on a game-to-game basis, and we expect the experience Miami has to work in their favor tonight. We like the Heat to cover the number and keep this contest close. 

Best Bet: Heat +7 (-108) 

Looking at their four regular season matchups, they combined to score 215, 255, 236, and 193 points. In addition, the Heat and Celtics have combined to score 239, 216, 230, 215, 207, and 207 in this playoff series. The total for Game 7 is 203.5, the lowest number we’ve had. That’s hardly a surprise with how tight this series has been getting over the last few games, and the defenses on both sides are primed to step up. Both teams will give all they have in this matchup, and as a result, there’s merit in expecting a lower-scoring Game 7 to transpire with the defensive pedigree these squads have.

Best Bet: Under 203.5 (-110) 

There have been many moments in this series where the superstars have balled out and established their presence. Jayson Tatum has been a force in helping get Boston back in this series, and we’re expecting no different in this Game 7 tonight. Tatum put together a Game 7 for the ages against the Philadelphia 76ers last round, but it’s hard to see a repeat performance this time around against Miami. In six games, Tatum has eclipsed 31.5 points just twice, and we expect Miami to be able to keep him under that number tonight in Game 7. 

Best Prop: Jayson Tatum Under 31.5 Points (-125) 

Thumbnail photo via Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

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