Pickett and Pickens: Pittsburgh's New Touchdown Titans

by

Aug 25, 2023

Pittsburgh Steelers fans have gone through a range of emotions, displaying apprehension and curiosity. However, Kenny Pickett has illuminated the preseason talk.

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Pickett, without a doubt, has been turning heads and defying skeptics. And while Diontae Johnson is coming off a subdued year, George Pickens is sparking anticipation, especially as he enthusiastically dives into the season. The betting enthusiasts have been hovering around a specific prop linked to Pickens — his projected number of touchdowns for the season. Why?

It’s hard to ignore someone catching nearly everything flung in his direction. The preseason has been a testament to Pickens’s prowess. One of the primary reasons for this excitement is the anticipated uptick in passing from the Steelers’ offense, especially near the red zone.

Historically, last year saw the Steelers a dismal 25th ranked in the NFL when it came to pass rate inside the opponent’s 15-yard line. With Matt Canada calling plays on offense, this was one of the lowest league stats. But roll the clock back a year earlier: they stood proud as the No. 1 team in pass-heaviness inside the 15-yard line, still under Canada, but with Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback.

Confidence in Pickett is palpable. It’s expected that he will guide the ball more frequently towards the 15-yard line, paving the way for touchdown passes — and many are betting that these will predominantly find their way to Pickens.

Why the Odds Favor More Touchdowns for Pickens

  1. Passing Attempt Evolution: With the trust building in Kenny Pickett, the Steelers will likely see a surge in their passing attempts, especially within the 15-yard zone.

  2. Positive Regression: Last year’s stats for Pickett — an underwhelming completion rate in the red zone — are anticipated to regress positively. There’s substantial room for improvement, with 18 completions from 46 attempts inside the red zone.

  3. Explosiveness: Steelers lacked depth in their touchdown passes last season. With the changing dynamics and player roster this year, we might see deeper touchdown passes combined with an enhanced completion rate.

So, if you’re scouting for numbers, bettors are eyeing a promising over 3.5 for Pickens, with a more audacious prediction leaning towards over 4.5. With the momentum building and the dynamics shifting, this NFL season promises to be riveting and rewarding for those backing the league’s rising stars.

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Thumbnail photo via Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

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