It’ll be the finale of the Pac-12 conference in 2023, and Lincoln Riley‘s USC Trojans are considered the favorite. We know the offense will be elite, helmed by Heisman winner Caleb Williams and an embarrassment of riches at running back and wide receiver, but all eyes will be on a defense featuring plenty of new faces.
Will the Trojans go out victorious before heading to the Big Ten?
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USC Trojans Preview2022 Record: 11-3 (8-1); Pac-12 Finish: 1st overall in Pac-12 Regular Season, lost 47-24 to Utah in Pac-12 Championship Game
A.P. Poll: No. 6 | Coaches Poll: No. 6 | PFF: No. 7 | SP+: No. 7
Head Coach: Lincoln Riley: 11-3 (11-3) | 2nd Season | Overall: 66-13
Offensive Coordinator: Josh Henson (2nd season)
Defensive Coordinator: Alex Grinch (2nd season)
USC Trojans Futures FanDuel OddsNational Championship Odds: +1600 | CFB Playoff Odds: +250
Pac-12 Championship Odds: +200
Win 10+ Games: -165 | Undefeated Regular Season: +470
Regular Season Wins: OVER 9.5 -170 | UNDER 9.5 +138
USC Predictions & Picks: Win Total and Pac-12 Championship
USC Preview: Why You Should Be BullishAn improved defense combined with an already lethal offense. It’s no secret that the defense has to improve this season, and that’s primarily what 2023 will depend upon. They return nine starters defensively, and a few will likely lose their spot after the staff hit the portal hard, bringing in a ton of talent. Safety Calen Bullock, a preseason nominee for the Chuck Bednarik Award, leads a secondary that will need to produce. They added Arizona’s top cover man, Christian Roland-Wallace, via the portal to fortify a unit ranked 108th in Passing Success Rate. The front seven should be much improved with as many as five newcomers featured in the starting front seven — Bear Alexander or Jack Sullivan, Kyon Barrs, Anthony Lucas, and Jamil Muhammad up front, and Mason Cobb and/or Tackett Curtis at linebacker. We know Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams and the offense will be elite, so there are few questions on that side of the ball.
USC Preview: Why You Should Be BearishTwo words: Alex Grinch. While there was an infusion of talent on all three levels defensively, it’s less certain that Grinch can coordinate this unit to the level it needs to be to compete for a National Championship. This unit finished 122nd in EPA per play and 126th in Success Rate a year ago, and while there’s every reason to expect improvement considering the talent acquisition, there is so much improvement required that it may prove too challenging to pull off in a year. At the same time, Lincoln Riley has been effusive in his support of Grinch and assured the media that he has the right guy for the job. However, eventually, push comes to shove, and results are required on the field. Grinch’s defenses have held opponents below 25 PPG once in his eight years as a defensive coordinator.
Breakout Player:WR Zachariah Branch, Freshman
Five-star true freshman wide receiver Zachariah Branch enters the college football stratosphere as one of the most electric playmakers in the country from Day 1. He’s drawn comparisons to Tyreek Hill for his game-changing speed and is supremely agile. He’ll see the field this season and likely generate a handful of highlight plays for making defenders look silly on his commute to the end zone. The Trojans have an embarrassment of riches at the skill positions with running backs Austin Jones and Marshawn Lloyd and a receiving group that includes Branch, Dorian Singer, Mario Williams, Tahj Washington, Raleek Brown, and Brenden Rice.
X-Factor:The Defensive Front
This unit was not up to par in 2022, allowing opposing rushing attacks to churn out yards consistently. The transfer portal additions have a ton of pressure to improve upon a front seven that ranked 129th in EPA per Rush and 128th in Rushing Success Rate. Alexander, Lucas, Sullivan, and Cobb earned four-star transfer grades from 247, while Muhammad and Barrs were graded as three stars in the portal. Success at the highest level will come down to how improved this front is against physical opponents.
USC Schedule AnalysisThis schedule is notable because there’s a clear contrast between the first and back half. The Trojans should breeze through their first six games of the year before the real schedule begins with a trip to South Bend on October 14. A challenging home game (and revenge spot!) occurs next week against the Utah Utes. A tough four-game stretch concludes the year: at Cal, vs. Washington, at Oregon, and vs. UCLA. That’s as difficult of a stretch as you’ll see for a Pac-12 team in 2023.
USC Prediction: OVER/UNDERWhile the schedule is tough to end the year, the Trojans should cakewalk to 6-0 to start the year. I’d be surprised if they lose at home to Utah in a huge revenge spot. They have the firepower to get past UCLA barring a disaster. Cal is not a threat. That means that if they avoid an upset, they’d need to win just one of their three most-difficult games (at ND, vs. Washington, at Oregon) to get to 10+ wins. There’s a reason the OVER 9.5 is juiced — it’s the most likely side.
USC Preseason PickOVER 9.5 (-170 @ FanDuel Best Price)
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