NFL Week 1 Bets: How To Tackle Rookie QBs Making First Start
After none last year, a trio of rookies get the start right away in 2023
Trying to bet Week 1 of the NFL is difficult enough as is, but when you throw in the combustibility of a rookie quarterback, it adds to the handicapping calculus.
Generally speaking, most bettors are going to steer clear of those first-year signal-callers. Even the best college QBs go through some sort of growing pains over the course of their first season, as they look to acclimate to the increase in game speed everyone talks about when comparing college to the pros.
As there is just about every year it seems, there was a run on quarterbacks atop the 2023 NFL Draft. The Carolina Panthers made Bryce Young the No. 1 overall pick, Houston grabbed C.J. Stroud with the second selection, and the Colts swung for the fences by selecting Anthony Richardson at No. 4. All three are going to take the field Sunday for the first time as starters in the NFL, and as you might expect, their teams are catching some points in what sportsbooks believe will be low-scoring affairs.
Bryce Young, Carolina
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C.J. Stroud, Houston
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Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis
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To recap: The Texans-Ravens line of 10 is the biggest of the weekend, by far, and the Carolina-Atlanta total has been falling. These are all three of the lowest totals on the board this week.
Interestingly, the trio of freshmen leading their team onto the field Sunday is a major departure from 2022 when not one first-year QB got the starting nod. You have to go back to 2021 where three rookies — Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson and Mac Jones — all were thrown to the wolves right away.
All three lost, and what’s even more notable about that is that two of them (Lawrence and Jones) lost as favorites.
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville
37-21 loss at Houston as 3-point favorite
Zach Wilson, New York Jets
19-14 loss at Carolina as 4-point underdog
Mac Jones, New England
17-16 loss versus Miami as 3-point favorite
None of those three games featured a total of more than 45, and two of three still went under.
It’s even riskier when you factor in head coaches. In 2021, not only were Lawrence and Wilson making their own debuts, so were their head coaches: Urban Meyer and Robert Saleh. The same can be said for Houston (DeMeco Ryans) and Indianapolis (Shane Steichen) this week. Frank Reich is also new in Carolina, but he has experience as a head coach in the league.
With all of that being said, the 2021 campaign is just one year of many. As Action Network’s Stuckey pointed out recently, rookie quarterbacks are 15-13 against the spread in Week 1 over the last 20 years. That makes sense. It’s clearly a major storyline, and that’s certainly factored into and considered by bookmakers and bettors alike.
As is the case with everything betting, especially in the NFL, you typically need to consider more than just one angle before placing your bet. That said, if you want to ride with any of these rookies, good luck.
