John Schneider Lifts Berrios, Disaster Ensues for Blue Jays

by

Oct 5, 2023

Elsewhere in the MLB playoffs, one decision in particular had fans and analysts alike scratching their heads. John Schneider, the manager for the Toronto Blue Jays, made a questionable call yesterday when he chose to pull Jose Berrios in the early stages of the fourth inning. For the spectators, Berrios seemed to be in good rhythm. Sure, he did walk a batter, but other metrics showed no glaring issues that would suggest he was struggling.

The situation escalated when the Minnesota Twins stepped up. Carlos Correa proved his worth by delivering for the Minnesota Twins in that crucial spot. With this performance, the Twins have started to rewrite their playoff narrative. After a staggering 18 consecutive playoff defeats, the Twins now boast a two-game postseason win streak – their first such triumph since 2004.

Many speculated that Schneider’s decision was influenced by contemporary analytics. There’s a growing school of thought in baseball management that is now coming into question. This belief often drives managers to shuffle their pitchers, alternating between left-handed and right-handed options to throw off the opposing batters. But this strategic maneuver didn’t work out for the Blue Jays.

However, a deeper look suggests the real issue wasn’t the pitching. Over the two playoff games against the Twins, the Blue Jays’ main problems emerged from the batter’s box. Based on metrics like weighted on-base percentage and ISO power numbers against right-handed pitching, Toronto’s top performers didn’t perform at all. You can’t win if you don’t score. 

The underlying message is clear: if your key hitters don’t show up in crucial games, there’s only so much your pitchers can achieve. Had someone told us before the game that Toronto would only concede two runs, we’d have confidently placed them in the win column. However, yesterday was the exception to that rule. The Twins exhibited exemplary pitching, leaving the Jays struggling to find their rhythm.

The Blue Jays will have to sit in the offseason and wonder about their decisions as the postseason continues. 

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Thumbnail photo via John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

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