Patriots-Commanders Betting Preview: Trends, Prop, Pick For Week 9

The Patriots’ and Commanders’ seasons are spirling in the wrong direction, and this Sunday’s matchup can provide positivity that is desperately needed.

New England will need its wide receivers to step up after Kendrick Bourne went down with an ACL injury and after the team’s quiet trade deadline. Washington traded its top two pass rushers before Tuesday’s deadline, but the confidence is high in the locker room.

The matchup still sets up nicely for the Patriots. Their offensive line would have to be really bad if the Commanders’ backups got home on Mac Jones. Sam Howell leads the league in sacks taken, and he’s been erratic this season. His performance in Week 8 showed he can sling the ball to the team’s top playmakers, but this Sunday should be a get-right spot for the Patriots’ defense.

But don’t get things twisted, this is a highly bland matchup for neutrals. Washington could sneak into the wild card, but owner Josh Harris and the coaching staff likely knew the team had a limited ceiling that wasn’t worth chasing. The Patriots are stuck in no man’s land with a team average enough to get wins over bad teams but not good enough to compete for the postseason. Tanking isn’t a viable strategy in the NFL, so New England is just making the pieces it has work and fans only can hope the team ends up with a favorable draft pick by season’s end.

Here’s all you need to know about this Sunday’s Patriots-Commanders matchup from a betting perspective. All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Washington Commanders at New England Patriots (-3)
Total: 40.5
When: Sunday, Nov. 5 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: Gillette Stadium; Foxboro, Mass.

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BETTING TRENDS TO KNOW
The Commanders are 2-13 against the spread in their past 15 matchups against AFC East opponents, according to VSiN. But Washington is 5-2 ATS in its past seven road games against AFC teams, and it is 8-2 toward the under. November is when the Patriots historically ramp up their games as they are 12-2-1 ATS at home in their last 15 November games. However, Jones and Bill Belichick remain a quarterback-head coach duo to bet against with a 3-12 ATS record in the past 15 games.

PATRIOTS PROP TO CONSIDER
Mac Jones over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+162) — The Commanders are the third worst team in dropback expected points added on defense, and a weak pass rush and secondary should set up well for the New England signal-caller. Bill O’Brien could utilize his tight ends more, and Pharaoh Brown has turned into a big-play weapon — his anytime touchdown prop is 19-1. This has all the feeling of a big Jones game heading into Germany next week.

COMMANDERS PROP TO CONSIDER
Jahan Dotson over 42.5 receiving yards (-114) — Terry McLaurin will get the attention of New England’s secondary, and Dotson finally is coming off a big game after weeks of little production. The Patriots defense has been a pass funnel of sorts ranking bottom 10 in dropback EPA and dropback success rate on defense. Offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy has experience from his Chiefs days on how to handle Belichick’s defense, and it would not be a surprise if he tried to find ways to generate big plays to get his quarterback comfortable.

PICK: Patriots -3 (-110)
New England is bad, but it’s hard to believe it can be worse than the Commanders. This could be an exciting game just on the fact that it likely will be a close matchup with chaos ensuing in the second half. This stretch of New England’s schedule is an opportunity for the Patriots to rack up some wins, and they can start doing that with a win over the Commanders.