And just like that, 2023 is in the books. But before officially moving onto 2024, we have to crown a college football champion. We were robbed of our usual New Year’s Six traditions as the Georgia Bulldogs thoroughly dispatched the Florida State Seminoles in the Orange Bowl already. However, we still have five games to get excited for. The CFP semifinals, ReliaQuest, Citrus, and Fiesta bowls are among those.
We’re here to help provide a winning edge, offering insights into each one of those New Year’s Day contests!
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ReliaQuest Bowl
Wisconsin Badgers vs. LSU Tigers (-8.5)
Total: 56.5
The New Year’s Day schedule kicks off with the ReliaQuest Bowl, pitting the Wisconsin Badgers against the LSU Tigers. The Tigers opened as double-digit favorites but have been bought down slightly to -8.5. Wisconsin hasn’t been a great team against the spread, but they can buck that trend against a lackadaisical Tigers defense.
The Badgers went 4-6-2 against the spread this season, albeit with a more impressive 7-5 record straight up. As usual, Wisconsin prioritizes the ground game, a factor they can use to their advantage against the Tigers. LSU sits 102nd in total yards allowed, giving up 417.3 per game. Worse, 163.5 of those come via the rushing attack.
There are too many holes in the Tigers defense for them to run away with this one. Wiscy should be able to keep it close enough to cover +8.5.
Best Bet: Badgers +8.5
Citrus Bowl
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Tennessee Volunteers (-5.5)
Total: 35.5
The second of three SEC schools to take to the field, the Tennessee Volunteers meet up with the Iowa Hawkeyes in this year’s Citrus Bowl. Iowa has one of the best defenses in the nation, and they can lean into that strength against the Volunteers.
Of course, the Vols are no defensive slouches themselves. Tennessee limited opponents to 349.5 total yards per game, playing most of their schedule against mighty conference opponents. Moreover, they lacked offensive production over the season’s final few weeks, staying beneath the total in two of their last three.
This total is hovering around the mid-30s for a reason. Both programs have been effective at bottling up the opposition, and neither has been extraordinary offensively. Consequently, we’re betting the Citrus Bowl stays beneath 35.5 points.
Best Bet: Under 35.5
Check out SportsGrid’s CFB Game Picks and CFB Props Picks During Bowl Season.
Fiesta Bowl
Liberty Flames vs. Oregon Ducks (17.5)
Total: 68.5
We are always ready for the excitement of the Fiesta Bowl. Perennially, this ranks as one of the most entertaining games of bowl season, and we’re expecting nothing differently this time around.
The high-octane Oregon Ducks enter Monday’s tilt against the unassuming Liberty Flames. Liberty went undefeated in 2023, albeit against an underwhelming Group of 5 schedule. Still, they managed to offer 500 yards and 40 points per game en route to a Conference USA championship.
Although they were good at times, Oregon was not renowned for their top defensive performances. Instead, they unleashed their offense, forcing opponents to try and keep up with them. We’ll see if that strategy pays off in what should be one of the highest-scoring games of the day.
Best Bet: Over 68.5
Rose Bowl – CFP Semifinal
(4) Alabama Crimson Tide vs. (1) Michigan Wolverines (-1.5)
Total: 45.5
For years, the Michigan Wolverines have been touted as Championship contenders, and for years they have perpetually disappointed. Cheating controversies aside, this could be the season it all comes together for Michigan as they enter the CFP as the top-ranked team. Nevertheless, they enter the Rose Bowl as short -1.5 chalk against the Alabama Crimson Tide.
The Wolverines set the defensive standard this year. Michigan held opponents to a paltry 239.7 yards and 9.5 points per game. Bama nearly matched that defensive energy, corraling FBS opponents to 320.0 yards and 19.1 points, arguably against a tougher schedule.
Defense will be an emphasis for both sides, making it hard for either team to get any offensive traction. The Wolverines are eager not to let another title slip through their grasp, but they will be pushed to the brink by the Crimson Tide. The Rose Bowl is shaping up to be a defensive struggle, staying under 45.5 points.
Best Bet: Under 45.5
Sugar Bowl – CFP Semifinal
(3) Texas Longhorns (-4.5) vs. (2) Washington Huskies
Total: 61.5
The country has been expecting the Washington Huskies to fall flat on their faces for weeks. Washington ended the season as underdogs in two of their previous three, illustrating the lack of confidence they had in the betting market. Nevertheless, they completed their perfect regular season, earning a berth into the Sugar Bowl and the second seed in the CFP. They’ll defend that distinction as underdogs against the Texas Longhorns.
Texas rode its offense into the playoffs, winning seven straight to end the campaign, including a decisive 49-21 victory in the Big 12 Championship. However, they will face a more astute challenge from the Huskies. Washington accumulated +1.7 net yards per play, surpassing the Longhorns benchmark of +1.6.
People have been discounting the Huskies all season, but do so at your own peril. Washington should cover +3.5 and could even pull off the stunning upset as underdogs.
Best Bet: Huskies +3.5
Odds Courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook
