Though the undefeated New England Patriots have piled up the second-most points in the NFL through three games, it’s not difficult to identify the weak point in their offense thus far.
After bulldozing through opponents en route to a Super Bowl title last year, the Patriots have struggled to run the ball effectively this season despite returning their entire running back group. They averaged just 3.2 yards per carry in blowout wins over the Pittsburgh Steelers, Miami Dolphins and New York Giants, the fifth-worst mark in the league entering Week 4.
Bill Belichick said Monday morning his team needs to improve its run game. The roster move New England made Monday afternoon will make accomplishing that significantly more difficult.
One day after dismantling the Jets 30-14 to improve to 3-0, the Patriots placed James Develin on injured reserve with a neck injury, sidelining the veteran fullback for at least the next eight games. With offensive tackle Isaiah Wynn and wide receiver N’Keal Harry also on IR and only two players allowed to return, there’s a real chance Develin could be done for the year.
Develin was instrumental in the Patriots’ shift to a power-running outfit late last season, serving as a lead blocker on all nine of New England’s postseason rushing touchdowns. Tight end Rob Gronkowski (retired) and left tackle Trent Brown (now with the Oakland Raiders) played starring roles in that effort, as well. All three now are gone, at least for the time being, as are usual starting center David Andrews (IR, blood clots) and Wynn, Brown’s promising replacement.
Following those injuries and departures, the Patriots are left with Marshall Newhouse at left tackle, Ted Karras at center, Matt LaCosse and Ryan Izzo at tight end and International Pathway player Jakob Johnson at fullback.
It remains to be seen whether New England will continue to utilize a fullback with any regularity moving forward. Johnson’s only offensive snaps Sunday in his NFL debut came on kneeldowns.
Deemphasizing the position in Develin’s absence would fundamentally alter the Patriots’ offense. Only the San Francisco 49ers ran more plays out of 21 personnel (two backs, one tight end) last season, and Develin was on the field for 41 percent of the team’s offensive snaps in Weeks 1 and 2 before sitting out against the Jets.
“(Rushing success) comes down to team execution, and that includes everybody,” Belichick said in a conference call Monday. “It includes the point-of-attack blockers, the backside blockers, all of the perimeter players, tight ends, receivers and possibly a lead back or not a lead back. Sometimes we have those players on our running plays, and sometimes we don’t, so it’s not like every run comes with a fullback — some do and some don’t — or a lead back. … Each play is its own entity.”
The player most affected by this change in personnel is running back Sony Michel, who had Develin lined up in front of him on two-thirds of carries (24 of 36) against the Steelers and Dolphins. With Develin unavailable Sunday, Michel saw his lowest usage rate of the season even as fellow back James White missed the game to attend the birth of his son.
Michel scored the Patriots’ first touchdown but finished with just 11 rushing yards on nine carries, and his lone target from quarterback Tom Brady fell incomplete. The 2018 first-round draft pick is off to an inauspicious start following his excellent 2018 postseason, averaging an ugly 2.4 yards per carry on 45 attempts (second-worst in the NFL among qualified ball-carriers) and ranking dead last in Pro Football Focus’ elusiveness rating.
Blocking breakdowns up front have contributed to these struggles, but a team’s lead back should have the ability to create yards on his own when need be. Michel has forced just one missed tackle this season, per PFF.
The Patriots have found more success with their dual-threat backs, White and Rex Burkhead. Burkhead managed 47 yards on 11 carries against the Jets while also catching six passes on seven targets for 22 yards.
“We just have to do a better job of executing our running game and just trying to get a little more production out of it,” Belichick said. “But in the end, if we can throw the ball and move the ball and score points, that’s fine, too, if that’s what’s available. At some point, (though,) we’re going to need to improve our running game, so we’ll keep working on it.”
