The Patriots lead the all-time series 58-40-1, and the 58 victories are the most New England has earned against any opponent. The Pats are riding a 12-game winning streak against the Bills, including a five-game streak in Buffalo, and have beaten the Bills in 17 of their last 19 meetings. New England is 27-21-1 in Buffalo and 20-15 at Ralph Wilson Stadium.
When and Where
Sunday, Dec. 20, 2009, 1 p.m. (CBS)
Ralph Wilson Stadium, Orchard Park, N.Y.
Records
Patriots (8-5, 3-2 AFC East)
Bills (5-8, 2-3 AFC East)
Skinny
Looking back upon the Patriots’ 2009 season, it’s easy to point out the last-quarter losses that have handicapped the team’s playoff chances. Five weeks ago, the Patriots were inches away from knocking off the Colts and finding themselves in the mix for home-field advantage in the postseason. Now, New England is just one game up on the Dolphins and Jets, and is still searching for its first true road victory.
Since the losses are always more difficult to forget, it might be easy to overlook the Patriots’ last-minute win against the Bills in the season opener. Without the wild comeback — and everything else being equal — the Patriots would be 7-6 with a 2-3 record against AFC East opponents, and the Dolphins would be leading the division due to tiebreakers.
"We look at the last game we played against Buffalo, and it was as competitive a game as you could have," said Patriots head coach Bill Belichick. "They outplayed us for the better part of the game, and we were fortunate to make a couple of plays there at the end in a critical time."
The Patriots were flat for the first 55 minutes of the season, and they trailed the Bills 24-13 at Gillette Stadium. Quarterback Tom Brady engineered two touchdown drives in the game’s waning minutes, and the Patriots were also heavily aided by Leodis McKelvin’s fumble on a kickoff return.
"We had some unfortunate plays there [early] in the first game, but we were able to overcome it in the end," said Patriots wide receiver Wes Welker, who had 12 catches for 93 yards in the season’s first go-round with the Bills. "But we won’t be lucky this time around. We need to make sure that we’re bringing it all together and know that they’re playing some good football right now."
The Bills have been rejuvenated under the guidance of interim head coach Perry Fewell, who replaced Dick Jauron after Buffalo’s 3-6 start. Buffalo is 2-2 with Fewell leading the way, and it is playing its best football of the season at this point. Since the Bills know they’re out of the playoff picture, Sunday will be a classic case of a downed team going all out for a signature win that could define this season and create hope for next year. As the cliche dictates, this is Buffalo’s Super Bowl.
But it is also a vitally important game for the Patriots, who need a victory in Buffalo to finish the season 4-2 in the AFC East, which is the same mark as the Dolphins. If the Patriots lose to the Bills and finish the regular season tied with the Dolphins, Miami will repeat as division champions.
Because of Sunday’s significance, Brady knows the Patriots can’t wait until the fourth quarter to turn it on if they expect to beat the Bills a second time in 2009.
"It was tough," Brady said of the Week 1 meeting between the two teams. "They put a lot of pressure on us. I don’t think any of us felt really great about the way we played and kind of escaped with a victory. I’m sure Buffalo was very disappointed with the outcome of the game just because they had us there for a long time.
"It was a battle. I’m sure it will be a battle this week."
Projected Starters
Patriots
Offense
Quarterback: Tom Brady
Wide receiver: Randy Moss
Wide receiver: Wes Welker
Running back: Laurence Maroney
Running back: Kevin Faulk
Tight end: Ben Watson
Left tackle: Matt Light
Left guard: Logan Mankins
Center: Dan Koppen
Right guard: Stephen Neal
Right tackle: Nick Kaczur
Defense
Left defensive end: Ty Warren
Defensive tackle: Vince Wilfork
Right defensive end: Jarvis Green
Outside linebacker: Tully Banta-Cain
Middle linebacker: Jerod Mayo
Middle linebacker: Gary Guyton
Outside linebacker: Pierre Woods
Left cornerback: Darius Butler
Right cornerback: Leigh Bodden
Strong safety: Brandon Meriweather
Free safety: James Sanders
Specialists
Kicker: Stephen Gostkowski
Punter: Chris Hanson
Long snapper: Jake Ingram
Holder: Chris Hanson
Kick returner: Matthew Slater
Punt returner: Wes Welker
Bills
Offense
Quarterback: Ryan Fitzpatrick
Wide receiver: Lee Evans
Wide receiver: Terrell Owens
Wide receiver: Josh Reed
Tight end: Shawn Nelson
Running back: Fred Jackson
Left tackle: Jonathan Scott
Left guard: Andy Levitre
Center: Geoff Hangartner
Right guard: Kendall Simmons
Right tackle: Kirk Chambers
Defense
Left defensive end: Chris Kelsay
Defensive tackle: Marcus Stroud
Defensive tackle: Kyle Williams
Right defensive end: Aaron Schobel
Weakside linebacker: Bryan Scott
Middle linebacker: Paul Posluszny
Strongside linebacker: Chris Draft
Cornerback: Terrence McGee
Cornerback: Drayton Florence
Strong safety: George Wilson
Free safety: Donte Whitner
Specialists
Kicker: Rian Lindell
Punter: Brian Moorman
Long snapper: Garrison Sanborn
Holder: Brian Moorman
Kick returner: Roscoe Parrish
Punt returner: Roscoe Parrish
Stat Sheet
Patriots
The Patriots are an NFL-best 25-3 in December since 2003.
The Patriots have a league-high 31 drives of at least 10 plays this season.
New England needs one win for its ninth consecutive regular season with at least nine victories.
Quarterback Tom Brady is 14-1 in his career against the Bills, whom he has beaten more than any other team in the NFL. Brady has completed 307 of 464 passes (66.2 percent) for 3,598 yards, 32 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Brady’s 32 touchdowns against Buffalo are his most against any opponent.
Brady engineered his 29th career game-winning drive in the fourth quarter or overtime during the Patriots’ season-opening victory against the Bills. It is his only such drive in 2009. Brady had five game-winning drives in the 2001 season, including two in the playoffs; three in 2002; seven in 2003, including two in the playoffs; two in 2004, including one in the playoffs; four in 2005; three in 2006, including one in the playoffs; and four in 2007.
Wide receiver Wes Welker has caught at least six passes in 11 consecutive games, which is five games shy of Marvin Harrison’s NFL record.
Welker and Harrison are the only two players in league history to record their 100th reception of the season in their first 11 games. However, Welker had 105 catches through 11 games, while Harrison had 100.
Welker has six games this season with at least 10 receptions, which is one game shy of Andre Johnson’s league record.
Running back Kevin Faulk passed Tony Collins last week for third place on the Patriots’ all-time scrimmage yards list. Faulk’s 75 yards from scrimmage against the Panthers gave him 7,059 in his career.
Wide receiver Randy Moss needs one touchdown reception to give him his ninth season with at least 10 touchdowns in his career. It would tie Jerry Rice’s NFL record.
Moss has 52 receptions for 714 yards (13.7 average) and nine touchdowns in eight games against the Bills.
Running back Laurence Maroney has 60 rushes for 269 yards (4.5 average) and one touchdown in five games against Buffalo.
Tight end Ben Watson has 23 receptions for 289 yards (12.6 average) and four touchdowns in nine games against the Bills.
Bills
The Bills haven’t defeated the Patriots since the 2003 season opener — also known as "The Lawyer Milloy Game."
Buffalo is 2-4 all-time on Dec. 20, including a 1-1 record against the Patriots.
The Bills’ defense has held opposing quarterbacks to a 59.8 passer rating this season, which is tied with the Jets for the best mark in the league.
Running back Fred Jackson has 49 rushes for 222 yards (4.5 average) and 10 receptions for 103 yards in four career games against the Patriots.
Running back Marshawn Lynch has 34 rushes for 120 yards (3.5 average) and one touchdown, along with two receptions for six yards in two games against New England.
Wide receiver Lee Evans has 28 catches for 397 yards (14.2 average) and no touchdowns in 11 games — all losses — against the Pats.
Wide receiver Terrell Owens has 20 receptions for 295 yards and two touchdowns in four games against the Patriots. Owens leads the Bills this season with 45 catches and 705 yards. He also has recorded four receiving touchdowns.
Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has completed 94 of 177 passes (53.1 percent) for 1,089 yards, five touchdowns and nine interceptions this season. He has never played the Patriots.
Defensive end Aaron Schobel has sacked Brady 12 times in his career, more than any player in the league.
Black and Blue
(From Thursday’s practice report)
Patriots
Running back Fred Taylor (ankle) did not participate.
Defensive end Ty Warren (ankle) did not participate.
Defensive lineman Vince Wilfork (foot) did not participate.
Wide receiver Sam Aiken (shoulder) had limited participation.
Linebacker Tully Banta-Cain (shoulder) had limited participation.
Quarterback Tom Brady (right shoulder, right finger, rib) had limited participation.
Wide receiver Julian Edelman (forearm) had limited participation.
Defensive end Jarvis Green (knee) had limited participation.
Right tackle Nick Kaczur (shoulder) had limited participation.
Right guard Stephen Neal (ankle) had limited participation.
Defensive lineman Myron Pryor (chest) had limited participation.
Tight end Ben Watson (knee) had limited participation.
Cornerback Shawn Springs (knee) fully participated.
Bills
Wide receiver Terrell Owens (illness) did not participate.
Tackle Jonathan Scott (eye) did not participate.
Guard Kendall Simmons (shoulder) did not participate.
Safety Jairus Byrd (groin) had limited participation.
Wide receiver Justin Jenkins (knee) had limited participation.
Tight end Joe Klopfenstein (ankle) had limited participation.
Tight end Jamon Meredith (ankle) had limited participation.
This Date in Patriots History
In 2004, the Miami Dolphins rally to shock the Patriots 29-28 on Monday Night Football. Tom Brady hits tight end Daniel Graham for a two-yard touchdown to put the Pats ahead 28-17 with 3:59 remaining in the fourth quarter, but the Dolphins answer when running back Sammy Morris scores from one yard out to cut it to 28-23 with 2:07 to play. Brady is in the process of being sacked by Jason Taylor on the Patriots’ next possession, and on the way to the ground, Brady lofts a pass that is intercepted by Brendon Ayanbadejo at the New England 21-yard line. Twenty-two seconds later, A.J. Feeley throws a 21-yard touchdown strike to Derrius Thompson to vault the Dolphins to their third win of the season.
The Patriots are 3-5 on this date, including a 2-4 mark on the road.
Overheard
“That’s by far the worst I’ve ever seen it there. It was so bad that — in the pregame, the wind was blowing so hard — the cheerleaders were out there trying to practice, and every time they took a step, the wind would just blow them across. You couldn’t even throw the ball 10 yards in front of you without the wind just taking it. That was like playing in the eye of the tornado.”
–Patriots running back Sammy Morris on last year’s game in Buffalo that had wind gusts of 60 mph. Morris played for the Bills from 2000-03, and Sunday will be his 32nd game at Ralph Wilson Stadium.
Press Box
Patriots
Piling on Randy Moss is too easy.
The Patriots can still win the Super Bowl.
Don’t overlook the effort of Tom Brady.
Bills
This Byrd is a real hawk.
Perry Fewell says all victories are pretty.
Buffalo may go under the radar with its major personnel decision this winter.
NFL
Jerome Bettis has a three-step recovery plan for the reeling Steelers.
This NFL draft do-over has a Patriots rookie rocketing up the ranks.
Another Clinton might be heading out of Washington.
Outlook
This is a scary matchup for the Patriots, who will be battling a hostile environment, serious winter conditions and a Buffalo team out for revenge. Plus, the Patriots haven’t played a complete game in four weeks, and they’re 0-5 in other team’s stadiums this season.
What Buffalo may lack in talent, it makes up for by playing a tough, physical brand of football, and the Bills are playing with more energy under the excitable Perry Fewell. First and foremost, the Patriots have to start strong, exceed Buffalo’s intensity and try to demoralize the eight-loss team. After all, there are very, very few players on Buffalo’s roster who have beaten the Patriots. If the Bills fall behind quickly, they’ll have a difficult time blocking out those old memories.
In the first meeting between these teams in 2009, the Patriots focused their defensive energy on stopping wide receivers Terrell Owens (two receptions, 46 yards) and Lee Evans (three receptions, 25 yards), but they were bitten by running back Fred Jackson, who had 57 rushing yards, 83 receiving yards and one touchdown. Jackson particularly burned the Patriots in the screen game, but the Bills haven’t employed as many screens in recent weeks. They’d be foolish to stay away from the screen game Sunday.
Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick (it’s more fun to call him "Fitzy from Hahvad") has taken over for Trent Edwards, and Fitzpatrick has revitalized Buffalo’s downfield passing game that had been in hiding for much of the season. Fitzpatrick has thrown five touchdown passes this season, including scoring strikes from 37, 51 and 98 yards. He is also an athletic quarterback who can make plays with his feet, both down the field and laterally, so the Patriots need to be aware of his improvisational tools. Before pumping his tires too much, it’s necessary to note Fitzpatrick is only completing 53.1 percent of his passes, and he’s throwing one interception per every 20 attempts.
The Patriots’ defense really needs to take advantage of Buffalo’s offensive line, which started the season in shambles and has only gotten worse due to recent injuries. Kendall Simmons, who was inactive more often than not during his brief stint with the Patriots this season, is now starting at right guard for Buffalo. That’s not an intentional knock on Simmons. It just shows how much the Bills have scrambled to scrap together live bodies for their line.
On the other side of the ball, the Patriots will likely struggle in the passing game. Granted, quarterback Tom Brady completed 39 of 53 passes for 378 yards, two touchdowns and one interception against Buffalo earlier this season, but both teams are so different that it’s hard to levy weight on those statistics.
The Bills have a league-high 25 interceptions in 2009, and they’ve only allowed 10 passing touchdowns, which is the second fewest in the NFL. Buffalo is fifth in passing yards allowed (189.2 yards per game) and fourth in passing yards per attempt (5.4).
However, the Bills can’t stop the run by any means. They’re last in rushing attempts allowed (34.4 per game), rushing yards allowed (170.5 per game) and yards per attempt (5.0). The Bills are also 29th in rushing touchdowns allowed (17). Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is convinced the Bills are fundamentally solid with their rush defense and generally do a good job against the run, but they’ve often been burned by long gains — a claim Fewell didn’t refute.
The Patriots are coming off of their best rushing effort of the season, utilizing Laurence Maroney, Kevin Faulk and Sammy Morris with an effective rotation in the rain against the Panthers.
And finally, don’t forget about Buffalo’s exceptional special teams unit, which is solid across the board. Because the Patriots should be able to contain the Bills' below-average offense, it’s important for New England to hold Buffalo's special teams in check. The Pats can’t afford to surrender any easy points.
This is another prove-it game for the Patriots, who are better than the Bills but haven’t put it all together on the road this season. If the Patriots hope to play in the postseason, Sunday is as close to a must-win game as they’ll get in these last few weeks.
