Among those variables: How many years would a hypothetical new contract cover? At what price? Who else on the team stays? Which other free agents do the Celtics have the money to sign, instead?
On the other hand, the question is simple: Does Ray Allen, price aside, make the Celtics better contenders for a title in 2011?
His season statistics would say yes: 16.3 points on 48 percent shooting, including 36.3 percent from beyond the arc. Ray’s reputation as the best 3-point-shooter of all time continues to extend opposing defenses.
He played shutdown defense on Kobe Bryant in the Finals, and continues to be a leader both on and off the court. After just three seasons in Boston, Ray already feels like a true Celtic.
But his numbers were down big from the year before, when he averaged 18.2 points and shot 41 percent from deep, and Boston fans will find it hard to forget the UConn alum’s miserable 3-for-14 performance in Game 7.
Allen’s a month away from his 35th birthday, moreover, and could no doubt pose an injury liability in the seasons to come.
Two things are certain in this debate:
1. Ray wants to stay.
"I’ll deal with that when the time comes, but it’s obvious that I don’t want to be anywhere else," he said after the Celts’ devastating Game 7 loss.
It echoed the same message Allen had relayed to the Boston brass earlier in the season.
"I’d like to be here … There’s no reason to be any other place. I’d love to retire with this organization."
2. Keeping Ray would likely mean foregoing a big free-agent signing.
The NBA projected in April that the 2010-11 salary cap will be about $56 million. Even if Rasheed Wallace elects to retire, the C’s are already on the hook for $57 million next season (unless Paul Pierce opts out of the $21.5 million he’s owed, which is unlikely).
Because Ray has played with Beantown for three consecutive seasons, the Celtics can re-sign him without penalty (called the “Larry Bird Exception”). He is likely to see an offer from Danny Ainge and Co. that runs no more than two years, at about $9 million to $10 million per year (he made $19.8 million in 2009-10).
But signing anyone else (say, Joe Johnson — a name bandied about in Boston over this past season) would at that point likely violate salary cap rules, putting the C’s at risk for fines or loss of draft picks.
Here, then, is your challenge as general manager:
Assuming Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett stay, and the offer for Ray is two years, $18 million, would you sign him?Market Research
