Those who supported the trade said that Moss had become a problem for Tom Brady, who felt obligated to take too many shots at hitting the receiver for a long bomb. In throwing the deep ball, the Patriots' offense couldn't get in its proper rhythm.
Those who didn't like the trade said that the era of Wes Welker being Brady's best target was over as we knew it.
We don't know, ultimately, which side is correct, but we now have a sample size of four games with Moss and four games without Moss with which we can analyze the numbers.
Brady, for one, has suffered a bit:
Brady's stats with Moss: 85-for-122 (70 percent), 228 passing yards per game, 9 TDs, 2 INTs
Brady's stats without Moss: 81-for-139 (58 percent), 228.75 yards per game, 5 TDs, 2 INTs
As you can see, the yardage per game is nearly identical, but Brady's completion percentage is down a good deal without Moss. (Though, to not mention the five or six drops by receivers on Sunday against the Browns would be disingenuous.)
The camp that said Welker wouldn't be nearly as effective without No. 81 "taking the top of the defense" have a case through four games:
Welker's stats with Moss: 26 catches, 217 yards, 3 TDs for an average of 6.5 catches, 54.25 yards, 0.75 TDs
Welker's stats without Moss: 18 catches, 138 yards, 0 TDs for an average of 4.5 catches, 34.5 yards and 0 TDs
Also noteworthy is the percentage of passes thrown to Welker that are now falling incomplete. When Moss was running go routes all day long, Welker caught 26 of the 34 passes thrown in his direction (76 percent). Without Moss, Welker's caught 18 of the 28 passes thrown to him (64 percent). While a variety of factors influences that number, it's at least an indication that he's not getting as wide open as he was when he wasn't the primary focus of the opponents' defenses.
The end result is that Welker, who caught more passes than anyone in the NFL from 2007-09, is 14th in the league with 44 catches. He's on pace to finish the year with 88 receptions for 710 yards, which would be by far his least productive season in a Patriots uniform. More accurately, if his current pace without Moss is extrapolated for the rest of the season, he'd finish with 80 catches for 631 yards.
Take a glance of what that looks like:
2007: 16 games, 112 catches, 1,175 yards, 8 TDs
2008: 16 games, 111 catches, 1,165 yards, 3 TDs
2009: 14 games, 123 catches, 1,348 yards, 4 TDs
2010 (projected): 16 games, 80 catches, 631 yards, 3 TDs
Obviously, it's overly simplistic to say that Welker's numbers are down solely because of the absence of Moss, and you can't analyze Welker without taking into account the fact that he's still just 10 months removed from a devastating knee injury that generally keeps players off the field for 12 months.
Yet, the numbers in the earlygoing of the post-Moss era don't look particularly good for Welker and Brady. The statistical boost that Percy Harvin got with Moss in Minnesota adds more relevance to the Patriots' dip:
Harvin without Moss in Weeks 1-3 (average per game): four receptions, 35.3 yards, 0.3 TDs
Harvin with Moss (average per game): 4.75 receptions, 71.75 yards, 0.5 TDs
Then again, Harvin just had his best game of the year (nine catches, 126 yards) on Sunday without Moss, so he, like the rest of the Vikings, may have just gotten off to a slow start.
For the Patriots, maybe it'll take some time to readjust the offense, or maybe the Patriots really are in trouble. But, if another blowout loss like Sunday's in Cleveland takes place, it's a safe bet there will be a few more people in the camp that wasn't all too thrilled about the Moss trade.
