The next four weeks will be about finding a balance for the New England Patriots.
Tied for first place in the AFC with the head-to-head tiebreaker, the Patriots must match the Denver Broncos’ win total to close out the season. Since the Broncos are led by Peyton Manning and are an exceptionally talented team, that likely means the Patriots will need to win out.
The Patriots’ best chance of losing over the next four weeks comes Sunday at Qualcomm Stadium against the 8-4 San Diego Chargers. Beating the Miami Dolphins, New York Jets and Buffalo Bills should be a breeze, but division games are never so easy.
The Patriots also must maintain their health, though. Linebacker Dont’a Hightower (shoulder), defensive end Chandler Jones (hip) and wide receiver Julian Edelman (thigh) are banged up, and having those players healthy for the playoffs could make or break the Patriots’ chances at another Super Bowl title. It might not matter if they’re 100 percent or not if the Patriots don’t keep home-field advantage, though.
It’s going to be a tricky next four weeks for head coach Bill Belichick. With that out of the way, let’s get into this week’s mailbag:
Is Brandon LaFell the best outside receiver Brady’s had since Randy Moss?
–@metrowestwxguy
I wouldn’t say he’s the best outside receiver since Moss, because Edelman primarily played “Z” receiver last season, but he his the best “X” receiver Brady has had since 2010 — not that there’s a ton of competition.
When Moss was traded in 2010, Brandon Tate became the Patriots’ starting “X” receiver, and he was cut the next season, so that shows how the Patriots felt about him. In 2011, a 32-year-old Deion Branch and Chad Ochocinco were the Patriots’ “X” receivers. Branch was past his prime by that time, and it’s unclear if Ochocinco was ever on the same page as Brady.
Brandon Lloyd took over the “X” in 2012 and had a very solid season, catching 74 passes for 911 yards and four touchdowns. He also was completely yards-after-catch averse, averaging just 2.6 YAC. LaFell averages 5.6 yards after catch. LaFell is on pace for 74 catches for 997 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins shared the “X” role in 2013, and LaFell is obviously better than both players. Thompkins was cut this season, and Dobson was passed by LaFell and Brian Tyms on the depth chart this season.
So, yeah, LaFell is probably the best “X” receiver Brady has had since Moss, but that’s not really saying much. He’s having a great season, however, and he was a tremendous pickup for the price (three years, $9 million).
Time to add Dobson to the lists of drafted WR busts? Or wait it out another year?
–@PatriotsHome
Let’s give the former second-round pick one more season, but it’s not looking good.
Dobson had moments last season, but he also dropped nearly 20 percent of catchable passes, per Pro Football Focus, and he was leap-frogged by Thompkins, an undrafted 25-year-old free agent, on the depth chart to start his rookie season.
Dobson has dealt with foot and hamstring injuries serious enough to shut down his first two seasons in the league, and he never was able to make up for time lost this summer while he was recovering from surgery. Dobson was passed by LaFell and Thompkins before the 2014 season and Brian Tyms as soon as the third-year pro returned from a four-game suspension.
Dobson began practicing Aug. 11, missing all of organized team activities and minicamp, but Tyms was signed July 27 and had to stay home for the first four weeks of the season, so there’s no reason why Tyms should have been more prepared for the season than Dobson.
For LaFell to make an impact next season, he either would need to beat out LaFell or tight end Tim Wright for playing time. That looks unlikely right now, but obviously the Patriots thought highly enough of Dobson to make him a second-round pick just over a year and a half ago.
How concerning is the current lack of pressure from front seven last weekend considering what I understood was a weak o-line?
–@wilroache
It’s not overly concerning. The Patriots were spending a lot of time keeping a spy on Aaron Rodgers because of the Green Bay Packers quarterback’s scrambling prowess. They won’t need to fear Philip Rivers’ legs nearly as much.
Will Chandler Jones play Sunday and be effective?
–@kmgunder
I’ve received some variation of this question about a million times this week, and I’m not sure. I wouldn’t be shocked if Belichick holds him out until he’s 100 percent because it’s so important for the defensive end to be healthy for the playoffs. Belichick has been overly cautious with injuries at the end of the season before.
Who takes Dobson’s spot?
–@usmcdano
My guess would be either practice-squad wide receiver Josh Boyce or defensive tackle Sealver Siliga, who’s currently on short-term injured reserve. We likely won’t find out until Saturday afternoon. Belichick isn’t in the business of giving opposing teams time to fully prepare.
Has Hightower’s play made Mayo expendable?
–@TheDTSB
Jerod Mayo’s a great leader and player, so no one could make him expendable, but I believe Hightower has outplayed Mayo this season, and Jamie Collins is having a great season, too.
Since the Patriots stay in their nickel defense with two linebackers most of the time, a third linebacker might not be worth Mayo’s $10.6 million 2015 cap hit. Mayo might need to restructure his contract if he hopes to return next season.
Does Tom Brady have any cats?
–@ColbyGuarino
That’s a weird question!
I don’t know. He has dogs, though.
Do you think Rivers will have his way with the Pats secondary, in particular Ryan/Arrington on Royal or Floyd?
–@Patriots4evah
I don’t think he will, but now that you ask, here’s how I expect the Patriots to cover the Chargers:
Darrelle Revis on Keenan Allen
Brandon Browner on Malcolm Floyd
Kyle Arrington on Eddie Royal
Jamie Collins on Antonio Gates
Browner could cover Gates, but Floyd, at 6-foot-5, is a serious mismatch for Logan Ryan, Alfonzo Dennard or Malcolm Butler, all of whom are under 6-foot. Collins likely would need some help from a safety — likely Patrick Chung — to cover Gates.
