NFL Picks Week 5: Todd Gurley, Rams Thinking Upset Again Vs. Packers

For most of the NFL, a quarter of the season is in the books, and we still barely know more than we did when the 2015 campaign kicked off.

It’s still anybody’s guess which teams are for real, even as the Cincinnati Bengals, Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons remained among the ranks of the unbeaten. Are the New York Jets this good? Are the Baltimore Ravens and Seattle Seahawks starting to get things ironed out? This is why we watch.

NESN.com’s experts had rough outings in Week 4, with none even going .500 in their picks. They’ll try to do better in Week 5.

Here are our standings after four weeks:
Ben Watanabe: 39-23-1. (Last week: 7-8) Continues to have faith in the Bills against the spread. He probably should stop that.
Mike Cole: 34-28-1. (Last week: 6-9) Started the week off right by predicting the Ravens would down the Steelers in the Thursday Night Stink Bowl.
Ricky Doyle: 33-29-1. (Last week: 6-9) Believed in the Giants, for some reason, but it helped him avoid falling farther behind in the standings.

Let’s check out this week’s picks.

THURSDAY, OCT. 8
(EV) Indianapolis Colts (2-2) at Houston Texans (1-3), 8:25 p.m. ET
Ricky: Texans. I’m already sick of the Colts crying and hugging after wins. Like, you guys squeaked by two AFC South doormats. Congrats. Here’s to hoping it doesn’t happen again Thursday night.
Ben: Colts. Or should I say, “Colts … ?” Seriously, no matter the spread (which was set as a pick ’em just before we hit “publish” Wednesday morning), I can’t predict any game involving Indianapolis with any sort of certainty. The fact some people had Indy as their Super Bowl pick before the season is laughable.
Mike: Colts. The AFC South is a wasteland, which will be on display for all of the country to see. Assuming Andrew Luck plays, he makes just enough of a difference for Indy to win.

SUNDAY, OCT. 11
Washington Redskins (2-2) at (-9) Atlanta Falcons (4-0), 1 p.m.
Ricky: Falcons. The Falcons are perfect against the spread this season. The Redskins, conversely, are 5-12 against the spread over their last 17 games. Say no more, because I won’t listen anyway.
Ben: Redskins. The Falcons’ record looks great, but they’ve yet to face a defense that can bottle up the ground game like Washington. Matt Ryan will have a tough time making up this many points on his own.
Mike: Falcons. Even if the Falcons’ running game is slowed, they still have Julio Jones on the outside against a banged-up Redskins secondary. Don’t sleep on that Atlanta O-line, either (just six sacks through four games).

Cleveland Browns (1-3) at (-7) Baltimore Ravens (1-3), 1 p.m.
Ricky: Browns. Unless the Browns sign Josh Scobee this week, I’ll take Cleveland and the points. Justin Forsett’s Week 4 breakout bodes well for the Ravens against a bad Browns run defense, but Steve Smith Sr.’s absence will hurt Baltimore’s aerial attack.
Ben: Browns. Get ready for a theme this week of taking the road team and the points. It worked for Cleveland last week in San Diego, where the Chargers squeaked out the win but the Browns covered handily.
Mike: Browns. The Ravens win at home (6-2 in their last eight home games), but they’ve recently struggled to cover (1-4 against the spread in the last five home games).

Seattle Seahawks (2-2) at (-2.5) Cincinnati Bengals (4-0), 1 p.m.
Ricky: Seahawks. Seattle doesn’t look like the same NFC juggernaut we saw the last two seasons, and Cincinnati is playing great football. But the Seahawks’ defense is coming around with Kam Chancellor back in the mix, meaning life could be more difficult for Andy Dalton this week.
Ben: Bengals. Cincinnati historically is great at home in the Andy Dalton era, and Seattle obviously is scuffling, beating the spread just once in its last seven games.
Mike: Bengals. Last season, the Seahawks would have won this game. Same with the season before. This season, though, something just doesn’t feel right with this team.

St. Louis Rams (2-2) at (-10.5) Green Bay Packers (4-0), 1 p.m.
Ricky: Packers. Said it once and I’ll say it again: St. Louis will be that team that flusters me all season. I believe that now more than ever after the Rams’ Week 4 win over the Cardinals, whose tires were on the verge of exploding because of how much I pumped them the last two weeks. Whatever. Give me the Packers at home until further notice.
Ben: Rams. Aaron Rodgers has missed a few throws the last couple weeks, which admittedly still would be stellar for 75 percent of NFL quarterbacks. Unlike San Francisco and Kansas City, however, Aaron Donald will eat you alive if you’re not totally on your game.
Mike: Packers. The Packers have covered in their last six games as favorites and have won their four games this season by an average of, wait for it … 10.5 points. The upstart defense also matches up well against the Rams’ 32nd-ranked offense.

Chicago Bears (1-3) at (-10.5) Kansas City Chiefs (1-3), 1 p.m.
Ricky: Bears. I’ll probably look at this pick Monday morning and wonder whether someone slipped something into my coffee at the time I made it.
Ben: Chiefs. To me, K.C. is the anti-Falcons: Both are above-average teams, yet one has played a brutal schedule and one has played cupcakes. Of course, this means predicting an Alex Smith-led offense will score at least 11 points, so … yeah.
Mike: Chiefs. The Chiefs have done a miserable job of protecting Smith this season, but they should be able to cover against the Bears … I think.

New Orleans Saints (1-3) at (-4.5) Philadelphia Eagles (1-3), 1 p.m.
Ricky: Saints. I’m not high on either of these teams. I guess I just trust Drew Brees more than I trust Sam Bradford, which is an exercise in common sense. The Eagles might win, but I suspect it’ll be close.
Ben: Saints. This will be such a bad game, and who can pick with any confidence when Bradford’s involved?
Mike: Saints. The Saints will give the Eagles a lesson in how to use your talented backfield.

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3) at (-2.5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3), 1 p.m.
Ricky: Jaguars. If this game was played in London, it would end all talk of putting an NFL team overseas and probably create a rift between England and the United States.
Ben: Jaguars. People seem to be opening Kickstarters for everything nowadays, so it might be worthwhile to start one for the poor people of Florida, who will be subjected to watching this abomination of a football contest.
Mike: Jaguars. The Bucs turned over the ball roughly a hundred times last week, which gives me reason to believe they might struggle to cover a point spread this week.

(-1) Buffalo Bills (2-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-2), 1 p.m.
Ricky: Bills. The Bills are the ultimate curveball — ugly on some Sundays, sexy on others — so I’ll just load up on drinks this week and embrace their company. Buffalo’s defense should be good enough to cause problems for Marcus Mariota, even with the rookie quarterback playing well.
Ben: Bills. I just never learn, do I?
Mike: Bills. Rex Ryan’s defenses have fared well against rookie quarterbacks in the past, going 9-2 with the Jets in their first meetings with a first-year signal-caller. Good enough for me.

(-2.5) Arizona Cardinals (3-1) at Detroit Lions (0-4), 4:05 p.m.
Ricky: Cardinals. Maybe Arizona’s loss to St. Louis was a good thing, because the Cardinals’ spreads were starting to get a little too high for comfort. That said, I couldn’t be any more comfortable taking the Cards this week against a crappy Lions team.
Ben: Cardinals. Presumably, the Lions will brush up on the rulebook this week so they don’t lose on another blown call. Instead, they’ll lose the old-fashioned way after the Cards take them out behind the woodshed.
Mike: Cardinals. The Lions are on a short week, facing so much adversity and taking on a presumably angry Cardinals team. Nope.

(-10) New England Patriots (3-0) at Dallas Cowboys (2-2), 4:25 p.m.
Ricky: Patriots. Greg Hardy wants Gisele to attend Sunday’s game. If she goes, she’ll have the joy of watching her husband and the Patriots lay the smackdown on Jerry Jones’ beat-up bunch.
Ben: Patriots. Howdy. The Pats are going to blow the ‘Boys’ doors off in Big D, y’all.
Mike: Patriots. Bill Belichick got an extra week to prepare for Brandon Weeden. Do you really need any more analysis?

(-5.5) Denver Broncos (4-0) at Oakland Raiders (2-2), 4:25 p.m.
Ricky: Broncos. The Raiders just lost to the Bears. That’s grounds for a one-game pick ban in my book, especially since they made Jay Cutler look like a competent NFL quarterback.
Ben: Raiders. Oakland’s been trending upward, going 4-1 against the spread in its last five at the Black Hole. The Raiders also cover the field well, forcing seven turnovers, the 10th-most in the league thus far, which could be trouble for a Peyton Manning-led Denver offense that’s getting by on smoke and mirrors.
Mike: Broncos. The Raiders are allowing 158.2 rushing yards per game, and the Broncos’ running attack finally got going last week. That has to be worth a touchdown, even on the road in the division.

San Francisco 49ers (1-3) at (-7) New York Giants (2-2), 8:30 p.m.
Ricky: Giants. The Giants scored well last week on their big test against the Bills. The 49ers, meanwhile, flunked out of school a long time ago. San Fran is putrid.
Ben: Giants. The Niners look like hot garbage, and the Giants’ defense is rounding into form just in time to force Colin Kaepernick to throw another billion interceptions.
Mike: Giants. Kaepernick’s sucktitude has basically allowed teams to put 11 guys in the box, which is bad news for Carlos Hyde … and my fantasy team.

MONDAY, OCT. 12
Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) at (-3) San Diego Chargers (2-2), 8:30 p.m.
Ricky: Steelers. Le’Veon Bell could have a big day against San Diego’s run defense. Also, the Steelers, who rank fourth in the NFL with 14 sacks, should be able to put pressure on Philip Rivers, given the Chargers’ banged-up offensive line. At least that’s what I’m telling myself.
Ben: Steelers. As mentioned last week, the Bolts virtually never cover at home — no matter the spread, no matter the opponent. They failed again against the Browns. So I’m sticking with the odds until proven otherwise.
Mike: Chargers. I just don’t trust Michael Vick.

Thumbnail photo via Matt Kartozian/USA TODAY Sports Images