Andy Dalton is a decent quarterback.
He’s a three-time Pro Bowl selection who posted respectable numbers for most of his nine-year tenure with the Cincinnati Bengals, and an NFL team could do worse than start its season with the Red Rifle under center.
Still, we need to consider two important questions while drawing a line from Dalton to the New England Patriots in wake of the QB’s release Thursday.
One: Should the Patriots sign Dalton to become their starting quarterback in 2020?
The correct answer here is a resounding “no.” Not because Dalton doesn’t have the talent to be a starting quarterback in the NFL. But because Dalton raises New England’s floor at the expense of lowering its ceiling.
We know what Dalton is at this point: a 32-year-old mid-tier quarterback who can lead a team to the playoffs under the right circumstances. The problem — aside from Dalton’s tendency to crumble upon reaching the postseason — is New England hardly presents the “right circumstances” one year after struggling to move the football with Tom Brady, especially when you consider the limited preparation time Dalton likely would have to learn Josh McDaniels’ system thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Patriots have done little this offseason to augment their offense. Signing Dalton to become their starting quarterback would seal the Patriots’ fate as a mediocre team in 2020, whereas handing the keys to second-year signal-caller Jarrett Stidham this season at least exposes New England to two potential outcomes that’ll help the organization’s long-term decision-making: If Stidham thrives, he’s the guy moving forward. If he doesn’t, then the Patriots can aggressively search for a franchise quarterback next offseason — via the draft, free agency or trade — while knowing definitively Stidham wasn’t cut out for the job.
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Which brings us to the second (more logical) question: Should the Patriots sign Dalton to become their backup quarterback in 2020?
This obviously is more difficult to answer, especially without knowing the exact level of leaguewide interest in Dalton or his preferences in free agency. But it’s hard to imagine a robust market given the team-friendly contract Jameis Winston signed with the New Orleans Saints and Cam Newton’s ongoing uncertainty after being released by the Carolina Panthers. Perhaps Dalton would consider joining New England as Stidham’s backup, in which case the Patriots should entertain the idea, if nothing else.
“Everyone I talk to around the Patriots, it really comes back to two words: Jarrett Stidham,” ESPN Patriots beat writer Mike Reiss said Friday on “Get Up.” “They’re really intrigued to see what he can do. So, specific to Andy Dalton, I didn’t get any sense from anyone around the Patriots that when he became available (Thursday) that there was an aggressive push to sort of see where that would lead.
“If anything, it would be a conversation of due diligence and really asking the question, ‘How would bringing in a player like Dalton supplement what they have in Stidham, not supplant him?’ And that’s knowing they also have veteran Brian Hoyer in the room who they really feel comfortable with as well.”
Basically, the Patriots would be best-served beginning the 2020 season — their first without Brady since 1999 — with Stidham as their starting quarterback. No matter what.
If they want to bring in Dalton on a cheap deal, with the logic being he can help groom Stidham through both his tutelage and increased internal competition, then fine. But by no means should Dalton be viewed as Brady’s successor, unless the Patriots are OK going 7-9 and kicking the can down the road for the foreseeable future.
