When you look at the NFL’s Week 6 schedule of games for Sunday, one clash stands out above the rest: Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
We’ll get the latest installment of Aaron Rodgers vs. Tom Brady, and this time, it has conference implications with Brady now in the NFC as a Buc.
That game is also part of this week’s Superprop contest at NESN Games. All you have to do is sign up and make six prop picks for this weekend’s games, and you could win an online gift card to the ’47 store.
Here are our Week 6 picks for you to tail or fade.
Ben Roethlisberger UNDER 2.5 touchdowns, UNDER 278.5 passing yards
It’s somewhat surprising to see Roethlisberger’s career numbers vs. the Browns — he averages 244 yards and 1.5 touchdown passes per game — aren’t great. Obviously, those numbers aren’t especially applicable to this game, but it does speak to how difficult divisional games can be. The touchdown prop is always going to be tricky because Pittsburgh spreads it around so much in a variety of ways. For instance, six different Steelers rushed the ball last week, including three carries for Chase Claypool, who scored a rushing touchdown (in addition to three receiving scores). The passing prop is tough to bite on for the same reason but also because Pittsburgh’s passing game isn’t overly vertical. Claypool is the only Steelers wideout in the top 50 in average depth of target among NFL receivers with at least 10 targets.
Lamar Jackson OVER 1.5 touchdown passes, UNDER 246.5 passing yards
The Ravens are definitely going to have their chances to score this weekend against an Eagles team that has been flat-out bad. The Eagles’ offensive ineptitude might work against Jackson’s ability to rack up yards, though, especially if there are one or two turnovers that give Baltimore a short field. Not only that, for all of Philly’s faults, the Eagles defense has been pretty good at limiting big play, ranking seventh in explosive pass plays allowed, per Sharp Football Stats. Baltimore doesn’t move the ball especially fast (25th in pace) and it gets even slower in the second half when the Ravens likely will have the lead. This feels like a game where Jackson and Co. can score a lot without needing a lot of yardage.
Aaron Rodgers UNDER 2.5 passing touchdowns, OVER 257.5 passing yards
Rodgers is on the shortlist of MVP candidates through the first five weeks of the season. He’s playing out of his mind. So, it’s possible he goes into Tampa Bay — off the bye — and lights it up. It’s also possible the Bucs offense, which is getting healthy, takes advantage of a questionable Packers defense and puts a whole bunch of points on the board. If that’s the case, and Green Bay is playing from behind, it stands to reason Rodgers will generate a bunch of passing yards. It also makes sense for the Packers to get Davante Adams involved early in his return from an injury. Rodgers is averaging 303.5 yards per game this season and has failed to break that 257.5-yard mark just once. The touchdowns might be a different story, though, given just how many touches running back Aaron Jones gets near the goal line.