The Boston Bruins’ series price is right back where it started against the New York Islanders.
Boston opened as a -200 betting favorite ($200 to win $100) to eliminate New York and advance to the next round. That price ballooned to -500 after the B’s blitzed the Isles 5-2 in Game 1 behind David Pastrnak’s hat trick.
“We did our best to react to the overreaction,” one Las Vegas bookmaker told NESN. “You’ve got to move two or even three dollars sometimes after a victory, otherwise you won’t write any action on the ‘dog. Boston went from -200 to almost -500, so they went up the full three. And that move brought in action on New York at +325 or +350. You’re just trying to balance the ledger.
“We weren’t trying to write anymore series bets on Boston up 1-0,” the bookmaker cracked.
Go figure, the B’s dropped Game 2 due to Jeremy Lauzon’s ill-advised pass off a teammate’s skate near center ice that led to Casey Cizikas’ game-winning goal in overtime.
And just like that, the series prices were slashed at the betting window.
Bruins’ series prices vs. Islanders
-190 William Hill
-200 Circa Sports
-215 FOX Bet
-200 Westgate SuperBook
As you can see, the B’s are back to a consensus two-dollar favorite across the country. A -200 betting favorite implies over a 65 percent chance of probability, so the odds are still in Boston’s favor as far as the big picture goes.
Now the best-of-seven series heads back to Nassau Coliseum tied 1-1 and the Bruins are a short road favorite in Game 3. The market opened Boston -130 and early money showed for the B’s, moving the price out to -135 and -140 depending on where you shop.
I’m a little surprised that there hasn’t really been any adjustment on the goal total. Bookmakers dealt mostly O/U 5o-125 and 5o-130 in Games 1 and 2, and despite seven goals in both games, the total still sits at “5” for Game 3. The books aren’t usually in the business of handing out free money, but I already bit the bait and lost on that theory in the last game.
You’re on your own there.
I strongly advise against laying -200 on a regular basis, especially in one-off situations like a regular season baseball or football game. But some of the best bettors in the world pad their bankrolls by striking when the books make their playoff series overadjustments.
After all, you would’ve had to lay $500 to win $100 after Game 1 and now it’s $200 to win $100. I personally don’t think the Isles are going to generate enough offense to win three more games against the Bruins. New York got tons of “puck luck” in Game 2 and I would bet against that lasting long.
Just remember, a -200 betting favorite can actually be pretty cheap, especially when you consider where the price was — and where it could go if the B’s win Game 3.