If history is any indication, either Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers will win the NFL MVP award in 2021.
Well, that, or Peyton Manning comes out of retirement and takes home the honor.
The trio of quarterback legends has accounted for nine of the last 13 MVP awards, including Rodgers' win a season ago.
You also might be shocked to learn that MVP winners typically are high draft picks. Not counting Brady -- a sixth-round freak show -- you'd have to go back to 2002 to find an MVP (Rich Gannon) who wasn't a first-round pick.
So, trying to come up with darkhorse MVP candidates is easier said than done. But we love a good challenge around here, so here are a handful of players who wouldn't surprise if they contend for the MVP.
Falcons QB Matt Ryan
By the end of the 2018 season, Ryan Tannehill looked like a complete bust, and his future as a starter in the NFL was rather bleak. Since taking over as the starter in Tennessee midway through the 2019 season, he has a 110.6 passer rating, throwing 55 touchdowns to 13 picks. What changed, and what does it mean for Matt Ryan? Tannehill's renaissance came with Arthur Smith calling the plays as Titans offensive coordinator, and the Falcons are hoping their new head coach can do the same for Ryan in Atlanta. Granted, Ryan no longer has Julio Jones to lean on, but Calvin Ridley looks like one of the NFL's top wideouts, and the Falcons drafted game-changing tight end Kyle Pitts. The 2016 MVP still was able to lead the league in completions the last two seasons, and aside from Tampa Bay, the NFC South looks pretty open. There will be chances for Ryan to shine in 2021, and it wouldn't be shocking if he can take advantage.
Vikings RB Dalvin Cook
There are plenty of people who believe the Vikings are ready to usurp the Packers in the NFC North and perhaps even contend for a Super Bowl. Cook is the straw that stirs that purple drink for the Minnesota offense, and he has quickly ascended to arguably the best running back in the league. The value of running backs has been diminished in the pass-happy, modern-day NFL, and quarterbacks have won the last eight MVP awards and 23 of the last 30. However, those seven non-QBs to win? All running backs. A historic season paired with a strong Vikings performance should put Cook in the discussion.
Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa
When it comes to "darkhorse" picks, you're obviously banking on potential and narratives. Tagovailoa's potential is obvious. We saw what he did at Alabama, and he was a top draft pick for a reason. The rookie performance was OK, not great, and he still has plenty to prove. However, he should be motivated for a big season with rumors swirling about Miami's dalliance with Houston over Deshaun Watson. If he can take a major second-year step and lead the Fins to the playoffs, he'll get plenty of attention. That stable of weapons -- including DeVante Parker, Albert Wilson, Mike Gesicki and top pick Jaylen Waddle -- is among the best in the NFL. Tua certainly is set up for success.
Eagles QB Jalen Hurts
Hurts definitely will have to do better than completing 52 percent of his passes, but he showed flashes of brilliance in a four-game stretch to end the 2020 season. Extrapolate that four-game showing over a 16-game season (Pro-Football-Reference needs to update that one), and you're looking at 3,700 passing yards, 1,100 rushing yards and 32 total touchdowns. That's pretty good. A healthy Miles Sanders and Zach Ertz plus the addition of Jaylen Waddle should equal improved options. The NFC East is wide open, too, so the path to MVP consideration is there if you squint hard enough.
49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo
Tom Brady finished fifth in MVP voting in 2014, throwing 33 touchdowns and just nine interceptions while racking up more than 4,100 yards. He also happened to win Super Bowl MVP that year. And the 2014 season just so happened to be the first after the Patriots drafted Garoppolo as his supposed successor. Can Jimmy G now do the same thing in San Francisco to ward off Trey Lance? It's not a perfect comparison -- Lance was the No. 3 pick, and Garoppolo is no Brady -- but stranger things have happened. Just about everyone expects the Niners to contend for a Super Bowl after a 2020 season from hell, and Garoppolo as the (chiseled, strong-jawed) face of perhaps the NFL's best team isn't outlandish. It's a completely narrative-based suggestion, but Garoppolo could really force Kyle Shanahan's hand with great play, and he certainly has the supporting cast and system around him to flourish.
