How Loss Vs. Colts Impacted Patriots’ Chances Of Landing Top AFC Seed

The New England Patriots would have reclaimed the top spot in the AFC should they have earned a Week 15 win over the Indianapolis Colts on Saturday night at Lucas Oil Stadium.

The Patriots, of course, did not do that as New England failed to complete its comeback behind a good fourth quarter from quarterback Mac Jones. The Colts pulled out a 27-17 victory, snapping New England’s win streak at seven games.

The Kansas City Chiefs, who took over the top spot after their win over the Los Angeles Chargers on Thursday, continue to sit atop the conference standings.

Steve Kornacki, who frequently comes around this time in the football season to talk about the various situations in the NFL playoff picture, explained how the Patriots’ loss to the Colts impacted their probability at landing the No. 1 seed — and thus a first-round bye in the postseason. Reminder: Only one team will earn a first-round bye with the NFL playoffs expanding to seven teams this season.

Kornacki shared on NBC’s “Sunday Night Football” coverage that the Patriots entered Week 15 with a 42% chance of landing the top seed. Based on both New England’s loss and Kansas City’s win, that dropped to 26%. It marks a substantial change.

Kansas City, on the other hand, has more than doubled its chances to earn the No. 1 seed. The Chiefs, who have won seven in a row, entered Week 15 with a 24% chance to earn the top seed in the conference and, after their win over the Chargers and losses by the Patriots and Tennessee Titans, now hold a 50% chance at holding the top spot, according to Kornacki.

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The Titans, who were the second seed in the conference entering Week 15, have dropped to third after a loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Their chances at landing the top seed also took a hit as they dropped from 27% to 16%.

You can view the updated AFC standings here.

The Patriots, now the No. 2 seed behind the Chiefs, have remaining games against the Buffalo Bills on Sunday before wrapping up with the Jacksonville Jaguars and then Miami Dolphins.

The Chiefs will face the Steelers in Week 16 before ending with consecutive road games against the Cincinnati Bengals and Denver Broncos.