The lack of a true “alpha” in the AFC this season is partly responsible for the emerging belief in the Patriots as a Super Bowl LVI contender.
And while the conference still is without an overpowering force, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs — the two-time defending AFC champions — have become an approximation of their usual selves. And that could be a problem for every team, including New England.
The Chiefs started the season 3-4, with the low point being a 27-3 loss to the Tennessee Titans on Oct. 24. Even some of their victories, including a four-point win over the Cleveland Browns and a 12-point victory over the Philadelphia Eagles, weren’t all that impressive. Kansas City’s defense was getting gashed, and the offense was far more hit-and-miss than it’s been in the Mahomes era. Interestingly, the Patriots also were 3-4 after their first seven games, though they picked up a win in Week 7.
Well, neither team has lost since, and both are riding seven-game winning streaks.
The Chiefs kicked off Week 15 on Thursday night with a dramatic overtime win over the Los Angeles Chargers, who arguably were the better team but blew it in a few crucial moments. Mahomes racked up 410 yards and three touchdowns with Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill delivering 191 and 148 receiving yards, respectively, while combining for three touchdown receptions.
As a result, the 10-4 Chiefs currently sit atop the AFC standings, though the 9-4 Patriots can move back into first place with a win over the Indianapolis Colts on Saturday night. And, for multiple reasons, winning the regular season AFC battle is more important than ever for New England.
We previously discussed the unique importance of a first-round bye to these Patriots. It would be huge. However, arguably more important would be the ability to avoid traveling to Kansas City in the playoffs. Mac Jones is looking to become the first rookie quarterback ever to lead a team to a Super Bowl, and keeping him at Gillette Stadium throughout the AFC playoffs could mean the difference between making history and coming up short. Jones and the Patriots are very good, but asking any quarterback, let alone a rookie, to win a playoff game at Arrowhead Stadium is a tall order. It took an all-time performance from Tom Brady in the 2018 AFC title game to get it done.
But that’s not to say the Patriots couldn’t pull it off. They certainly could.
Despite the hype, the Chiefs still are not totally back to being the team we saw the last three seasons. Mahomes, currently the 18th-ranked quarterback at Pro Football Focus, hasn’t been as good as his numbers indicate and Kansas City’s running game isn’t scaring anyone. Yes, the Chiefs defense has improved over the last two months, but, as has been the case with the Patriots defense, opposing offenses absolutely have been complicit in their own demise.
Consider this: If you remove a pair of blowout wins over the fraud Las Vegas Raiders, the remaining five victories in Kansas City’s winning streak hardly paint the picture of a juggernaut.
— 20-17 win vs. New York Giants
— 13-7 win vs. Green Bay Backers (who didn’t have Aaron Rodgers)
— 19-9 win vs. Dallas Cowboys
— 22-9 win vs. Denver Broncos
— 34-28 win at Los Angeles Chargers
Plus, Patriots players and coaches know what they’re doing against the Chiefs. Hell, they almost won in Kansas City last year with Brian Hoyer at quarterback, and you easily could make the case that New England is better now than it was then, while the Chiefs are worse. So, failing to secure a first-round bye hardly would be a death sentence for the Patriots.
But the importance of playing a playoff-tested team like the Chiefs at home, versus on the road, can’t be understated for the Brady-less Patriots. Keeping things as easy as possible for Jones in his first NFL playoff run is a top priority.
The good news for the Patriots is that they control their own destiny not just in terms of conference seeding, but also with tiebreakers. If New England wins out, it will hold the first-round bye regardless of all other outcomes. If the Patriots win just two of their final four games but finish with the same record as the Chiefs, they will win the tiebreaker based on in-conference record.
Kansas City will close out the season with games against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals and Denver Broncos, whereas New England will face the Colts, Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars and Miami Dolphins.
Obviously, we’re putting the cart in front of the horse. The Patriots still haven’t won the division (they could the day after Christmas), and they and the Chiefs both still must worry about the 9-4 Titans and the 8-5 Baltimore Ravens, among others, in the battle for the top seed.
Still, it’s starting to feel like these two teams are on a collision course, in which case they both will need every advantage they can get.
