Shohei Ohtani To Red Sox? Why Blockbuster Deal Could Make Sense

Will the Red Sox make a splash at the Major League Baseball trade deadline? Boston is in the thick of the American League Wild Card race and could use a few pieces. As such, we’ll examine whether several notable trade targets make sense (or don’t make sense) as the club looks to retool for the second half of the season.

With the MLB trade deadline looming, rumors start to get heightened, players get put on the trade block that frankly shouldn’t be.

There’s no real reason to ever trade a player of Shohei Ohtani’s caliber, but the Los Angeles Angels reportedly are entertaining the idea anyway, according to the New York Post’s Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman on Thursday. With news of a potential split, nearly every team will soon come calling. Should the Boston Red Sox be one of them?

Info:
Position: Starter, Designated Hitter
Age: 28 (July 5, 1994)
Height: 6-foot-4
Weight: 210 pounds
Bats: Left
Throws: Right

2022 stats*:
17 games, 99 1/3 innings
9-6 record, 2.81 ERA, 145 strikeouts
1.017 WHIP, 2.37 FIP, 142 ERA+
13.1 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 6.30 K/BB

96 games (413 plate appearances)
21 HRs, 59 RBIs, 11 SBs
.254/.349/.486
134 OPS+, 132 wRC+, 1.9 fWAR (not including pitching)

Career stats*:
52 games, 283 innings
22-11 record, 3.28 ERA, 367 strikeouts
1.110 WHIP, 3.18 FIP, 130 ERA+
11.7 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 3.78 K/BB

505 games (2,019 plate appearances)
114 HRs, 306 RBIs, 66 SBs
.262/.352/.527
137 OPS+, 134 wRC+, 11.5 fWAR (not including pitching)

*through July 28

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Why Ohtani makes sense for Red Sox:
The Red Sox sit 3 1/2 games back of an AL Wild Card spot. They are still squarely in contention with 62 games to go, but could use a boost to get them over the edge.

Ohtani is not only an MVP front runner, with +110 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, but has the fourth-best odds (+1100) to win the Cy Young as well. It’s safe to say acquiring Ohtani would have an impact on the clustered American League East race. There might not be a more impactful addition to the Red Sox in the entire league.

The right-handed flamethrower would immediately become Boston’s ace and a middle-of-the-order masher. Ohtani has been an even better pitcher than hitter this season, leading the league in strikeouts per nine innings and posting an aforementioned 2.81 ERA with a 2.37 FIP. Given the Red Sox’s recent struggles defensively, it would make sense to add a strikeout thrower at the deadline to take some pressure off their position players.

The Red Sox already have an All-Star designated hitter in J.D. Martinez, but the duo could split time in the outfield. Ohtani has seven starts in the outfield at the MLB level, and Martinez has been a capable defender when called upon. Ohtani likely would replace Jackie Bradley Jr. in the starting lineup, which would be a substantial upgrade from an offense perspective.

Ohtani is under team control for 2023, so even if the deal does not pay dividends immediately, the Red Sox would be able to make another run at the Japanese superstar next season.

Why Ohtani doesn’t make sense for Red Sox:
The caliber of talent it would cost to acquire Ohtani would devastate the Red Sox’s budding farm system and could cost MLB talent as well.

Unlike basketball, investing heavily in a singular great player has not been a successful model in baseball. If it was, the Angels, who boast both Mike Trout and Ohtani, would not be a fourth-place team. The same logic applies to the Washington Nationals, who have the worst record in baseball despite Juan Soto’s individual success.

Pairing Ohtani with the likes of Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts and Martinez in a potent Red Sox lineup is a different story, but the depth of the organization has already been put to the test given the frequency of injuries the Red Sox have endured as of late; removing key pieces of the farm system would not help their case.

To make matters more complicated, Bogaerts can become a free agent after this season, Martinez is an impending free agent and Devers’ contract expires after the 2023 season. Given the uncertainty surrounding said players’ contracts, this hypothetical core could be cut in half this offseason and completely dismantled in two years. Having a franchise led by superstars on expiring contracts is a gamble not worth taking.

Verdict: The trade would be electric, but is nothing more than a pipe dream.

Prediction: Teams will and reportedly have come calling, but the Angels will decide to stand pat and leave their current debacle to be dealt with next deadline.