In a vacuum, losing Rich Hill to the Pittsburgh Pirates isn’t a big deal for the Red Sox.
Hill is reportedly signing a one-year deal worth $8 million, which is not insignificant for a soon-to-be 43-year-old. It’s a great get for Hill.
For Boston, though, Hill’s departure is unlikely to make or break its 2023 fortunes. But the left-hander did log 124.1 innings last season. In addition to Hill leaving, it’s looking more likely each day that 2018 postseason workhorse Nathan Eovaldi and his 109.1 innings are gone. Things get even trickier if Michael Wacha — whose name hasn’t been mentioned much yet this winter — leaves, too. Wacha gave the Sox 127.1 innings and was arguably the club’s most consistent starter.
That’s 361 innings, or 1,083 outs, the Red Sox must replace. The most likely plan is to do so with a combination of Chris Sale, Brayan Bello, Garrett Whitlock and James Paxton. Sale is coming back from more injuries, Bello will likely get his first full big-league experience, and Whitlock’s yo-yo act between the rotation and bullpen appears over with the team’s plans to make him a full-time starter. Paxton has logged 21 2/3 innings total since the start of the 2020 season.
It’s still possible Wacha (and less likely, Eovaldi) returns for ’23, but assuming they both jet, this is the most likely rotation for the upcoming campaign.
Chris Sale
Nick Pivetta
Garrett Whitlock
Brayan Bello
James Paxton
Again, there are major question marks or uncertainty regarding 80% of that rotation. Like the lineup, if all breaks right, there’s a chance it could be an underrated unit. That seems … unlikely. That’s especially true given the history of those guys.
Going into the season with five major league starters feels like whistling past the graveyard. There are internal options, yes, but questions about the likes of Josh Winckowski, Kutter Crawford or Connor Seabold are legitimate. Bryan Mata is an option down the road, but he has exactly zero big league experience.
It would make sense to add at least one more veteran who has proved he can get out major league hitters on a somewhat consistent basis. As evidenced by Hill getting $8 million from the Pirates, that well is drying up fast. In addition to someone like Eovaldi or Wacha, here some other unsigned veterans Boston could pursue.
RHP Corey Kluber
The name value is obviously great, and while he’s not the perennial Cy Young Award contender he was in Cleveland, Kluber can still be effective. He’s healthy again, logging 164 innings for Tampa Bay last season. That’s obviously a like-minded front office, so the Red Sox could be an option for the 36-year-old, who makes his offseason home in the area.
LHP Wade Miley
Miley has experienced a nice little late-career resurgence, pitching well when healthy over the last two seasons. He was especially good for the Reds in 2021, with a 3.37 ERA in 163 innings. He knows Boston, though his brief Red Sox stint wasn’t great. He also pitches to contact which doesn’t play especially well at Fenway Park and could look even worse if the Red Sox can’t play solid defense.
RHP Johnny Cueto
Cueto had a sneaky good season for the White Sox in 2022, making 25 starts with a 3.79 FIP that contributed to his 3.5 bWAR. He’s not the workhorse he was in the past — he logged 243.2 innings (!) in 2014 — but taking the ball 25 times and tossing nearly 160 frames as a 36-year-old was impressive. He’s a veteran presence who also has plenty of postseason experience, but he might be pricey as evidenced by a $14.7 million market value, per Spotrac.
