FOXBORO, Mass. -- The Patriots currently own the 14th overall selection in next week's 2023 NFL Draft. If they make that pick, it would be their highest since 2008, when they took linebacker Jerod Mayo at No. 10.
New England hit on that pick, with Mayo becoming a Pro Bowler and longtime captain before injuries shortened his career. Matt Groh knows whiffing on this one is not an option.
The Patriots' director of player personnel acknowledged Tuesday that he, head coach Bill Belichick and the rest of the Foxboro brain trust "can't miss" on the player they select next Thursday night. Groh's comments echoed ones by team owner Robert Kraft, who underscored the importance of this year's draft when speaking with reporters at the NFL annual meeting.
"Mr. Kraft's exactly right," Groh said in his pre-draft news conference at Gillette Stadium. "But I don't think -- there's not an owner or a general manager who doesn't feel that way. I'm pretty sure nobody's going into the draft saying, 'Eh, we'll be all right if we screw up on our first-round pick.' You can't miss on those guys. That's an investment. That's a four- or five-year investment.
"It's great to find those free agents, certainly from a cost-spending perspective, but you're making a real investment in that guy who you're taking in the first round, and then in the second and third rounds, as well. But with that fifth-year option on the first-round guys, you'd better do your homework and make sure you get those guys right, from a character perspective and from a player perspective."
"Getting those guys right" was an issue for the Patriots throughout the late 2010s.
While most NFL draft picks receive four-year rookie contracts, first-round picks have a contract option that, if exercised, puts them under team control for their first five seasons. Over a six-year span from 2014-19, the Patriots drafted five players in Round 1 (Dominique Easley, Malcom Brown, Isaiah Wynn, Sony Michel and N'Keal Harry) and picked up the fifth-year option on just one of them: Wynn. And they likely regretted that decision, as the offensive tackle was a major disappointment in Year 5 and remains unsigned more than a month into free agency.
Not all of those players were full-blown busts -- Brown and Michel both were starters on teams that won Super Bowls -- but none developed into long-term franchise pillars, and Easley, Michel and Harry didn't even make it to the end of their rookie deals. Several consecutive subpar drafts drained the Patriots' roster of young, affordable impact players and prompted their wild free agent spending spree in 2021, which Kraft has said is not his preferred method of team-building.
"To be good in this league, you have to draft well," Kraft told reporters last month after lamenting his team's streak of four straight seasons without a playoff win. "… We had a little period where we didn't draft as well a few years ago. We were able to get that changes, and I think we're doing much better. I look for the addition of (this year's) draft choices to make a difference. … I think having a solid draft is the foundation to building a team and sustaining it."
It's too early for verdicts on the Patriots' two most recent first-rounders -- Mac Jones (2021) and Cole Strange (2022), who both should benefit from the team's offensive coaching overhaul -- but New England's drafting overall has trended upward in recent years. After a lean stretch in the twilight of the Tom Brady era prompted some key changes to their prospect evaluation process, the Patriots' last three draft classes produced the likes of Kyle Dugger, Josh Uche, Mike Onwenu, Christian Barmore, Rhamondre Stevenson, Marcus Jones and Jack Jones, plus the polarizing Mac Jones and Strange.
What's New England's first-round plan this year? That's unclear. With just over a week to go before the draft kicks off in Kansas City, offensive tackle, cornerback and wide receiver look like the Patriots' biggest roster needs, and there should be a top-tier prospect for at least one of those positions available at No. 14.
For tackles, that's Northwestern's Peter Skoronski, Ohio State's Paris Johnson, Georgia's Broderick Jones and Tennessee's Darnell Wright. At corner, Illinois' Devon Witherspoon and Oregon's Christian Gonzalez are the headliners, with Penn State's Joey Porter Jr. not far behind. Wideouts Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Ohio State), Zay Flowers (Boston College), Jordan Addison (USC) and Quentin Johnston (TCU) all could go on Day 1, with Smith-Njigba and Flowers looking like especially intriguing options for New England.
Edge rusher also shouldn't be ruled out, as the Patriots have had at least four projected first-rounders in for pre-draft visits. There's also been buzz about them being high on Texas' Bijan Robinson, the consensus No. 1 running back in this class. And, of course, a first-round trade-down like the one the Patriots pulled last season is always a possibility with Belichick.
Regardless of which path they choose, Groh said they'll want a player who can step in and quickly contribute. Of the Patriots' 12 first-round picks since 2008, eight started at least 12 games as rookies, and only Easley started fewer than half of the games in which he appeared. (Wynn missed his entire rookie year with an injury.)
"You're hoping there at 14, you can get a pretty good player, and I would say throughout the first round," Groh said. "There's an old philosophy: If you're taking a player in the first round, you're hoping that player's going to come in and make an impact for you."
