How will the New England Patriots use their top pick in the 2023 NFL Draft? At this point, that’s anyone’s guess.
Offensive tackle, wide receiver and cornerback (in some order) look like the Patriots’ biggest needs two weeks out from draft night. But that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll target one of those positions on Day 1.
With Bill Belichick, wild-card picks always are a possibility. We saw that just last year when New England drafted guard Cole Strange at No. 29 overall despite most analysts pegging him as a third-round prospect.
So, if the Patriots don’t opt for a tackle, wideout or corner with their first-round pick this year (currently No. 14 overall), where might they go with that selection? Based on their pre-draft activity, one position to keep an eye on is edge rusher.
New England on Wednesday hosted Iowa’s Lukas Van Ness for a top-30 visit at Gillette Stadium, the defensive end revealed on Instagram. The Patriots previously had Georgia’s Nolan Smith in for a visit and scheduled one with Texas Tech’s Tyree Wilson for this Friday, according to multiple reports.
Wilson, Van Ness and Smith all are viewed as surefire first-round picks and top-five players at their position. The Athletic’s Dane Brugler had them ranked second, third and fourth among edge rushers in his “The Beast” draft guide, trailing only Alabama’s Will Anderson.
The Patriots also met with Wilson, Van Ness and Clemson’s Myles Murphy at the NFL Scouting Combine, and they sent defensive line coach DeMarcus Covington to Clemson’s pro day to watch Murphy and defensive tackle Bryan Bresee. Murphy and Bresee both are expected to come off the board in the late first or early second round.
Now, bringing in players for pre-draft visits or interviewing them at the combine doesn’t necessarily signal that a team is seriously interested in drafting them. The Patriots have contact with dozens of prospects before each draft, and the vast majority of them don’t wind up playing in New England.
But the Patriots devoting this much time and effort toward evaluating the top edge rushers in this class suggests they’re at least considering adding a premier player at the position. Wilson, a projected top-10 pick, likely will be out of their range unless they trade up in the first round, but Van Ness or Smith could be in play depending on how the board shakes out above them.
Van Ness never started a game in college but led Iowa in sacks (6 1/2) and tackles for loss (11) last season and has the versatility to play multiple D-line positions. Smith was a two-year starter and disruptive defender for a Georgia defense brimming with NFL talent, but he’s undersized (6-foot-2, 238 pounds) and missed the back half of last season with a torn pec.
With Pro Bowl outside linebacker Matthew Judon, 2022 breakout star Josh Uche and D-end Deatrich Wise all returning, edge rusher isn’t a glaring immediate need for New England. But Uche is entering the final year of his rookie contract, Judon turns 31 in August, and the OLB depth chart behind them is populated by underwhelming recent draftees like Anfernee Jennings and Ronnie Perkins.
Belichick’s hit rate when targeting front-seven defenders in Round 1 is high. He’s drafted eight during his tenure as Patriots head coach, and just one (Dominique Easley) was an out-and-out bust. The rest: defensive linemen Richard Seymour, Vince Wilfork, Ty Warren and Malcom Brown, and linebackers Jerod Mayo, Dont’a Hightower and Chandler Jones.
