The Red Sox aren't just surviving. They're thriving.
Boston entered last weekend with a .500 record (13-13), a decent mark considering the mounting injuries and inconsistent pitching the club dealt with through one month of the Major League Baseball season. Now, after winning six in a row, including a four-game sweep of the Toronto Blue Jays at Fenway Park, the Red Sox quickly are changing the narrative surrounding their 2023 potential.
This isn't to say the Red Sox suddenly are World Series contenders. Both the Tampa Bay Rays (26-6) and Baltimore Orioles (21-10) still sit ahead of Boston (19-14) in the American League East. And questions regarding the Red Sox's mound work haven't totally evaporated. But remaining in the playoff picture for the duration of the season no longer feels like a pipe dream. Boston's offense looks legit, and there's something to be said for the competitiveness and professionalism with which manager Alex Cora's group has operated for roughly 1/5 of the MLB campaign.
That's the good news for the Red Sox. The bad news? The short-term road doesn't get any easier. So, Boston's mettle will be tested, starting this weekend when the Red Sox travel to the City of Brotherly Love for three games with the reigning National League champion Philadelphia Phillies.
The Phillies are off to a slow start, with a 15-17 record, but they've recently shown signs of life, and now insert Bryce Harper, a seven-time All-Star, back into their lineup after a miraculous recovery from Tommy John surgery. The Red Sox will have their hands full at Citizens Bank Park, especially with Zack Wheeler taking the ball for Philadelphia in Friday night's series opener.
After that, the Red Sox will face the Atlanta Braves, owners of the best record in the National League, for two games at Truist Park, before returning home for a pair of three-game series against the Seattle Mariners and St. Louis Cardinals.
Boston could be a team prone to massive swings in momentum. There might come a point where their proclivity for coming from behind in games catches up with them, resulting in the occasional losing streak. As such, we must avoid being victims of the moment as the red-hot Red Sox roll into Philly.
But as it stands, amid Boston's eye-opening turnaround, the question is shifting from "are the Red Sox good?" to "how good are the Red Sox?"
Red Sox odds (May 5)*
To win World Series: +10000
To win American League: +4200
To win AL East: +2300
To make playoffs: +250
The Red Sox's World Series odds held firm, while their American League odds actually dropped slightly after sitting at +4000 last Friday. The real market movement is reflected in their AL East odds and their odds to make the playoffs, with Boston's numbers improving from +5000 and +390, respectively. If you're eyeing either of the latter two bets, you might soon run out of time to buy low.
*Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Probable pitchers
-- Friday, May 5 (7:05 p.m. ET at Phillies): Chris Sale, LHP (2-2, 6.75 ERA) vs. Zack Wheeler, RHP (3-1, 3.86 ERA)
-- Saturday, May 6 (7:15 p.m. ET at Phillies): Corey Kluber, RHP (1-4, 6.44 ERA) vs. Bailey Falter, LHP (0-5, 5.01 ERA)
-- Sunday, May 7 (1:35 p.m. ET at Phillies): Tanner Houck, RHP (3-1, 5.34 ERA) vs. Taijuan Walker, RHP (2-2, 6.91 ERA)
Storylines to watch
1. A massive start for Chris Sale?
It's been a Jekyll-and-Hyde season for Sale, who bounced back in his most recent start to allow only one run over 6 1/3 innings against the Cleveland Guardians. He struck out five and didn't walk a batter in that outing. Sale needs to show more consistency, though, in order for Boston's rotation, collectively, to take the next step. It's not hyperbolic to say Friday night's start -- with the Red Sox riding a wave of momentum -- is his most important of 2023 to date and could go a long way toward setting the tone for the rest of his (and Boston's?) season.
2. Final hurdle for James Paxton?
Paxton is scheduled to make his final rehab start with Triple-A Worcester on Friday night. If all goes well, he could join the Red Sox sometime next week. Obviously, one must temper expectations, as Paxton has tossed just 21 2/3 innings in the majors since the beginning of 2020 due to injuries. But there was a point where the left-hander was really good, first with the Mariners and then with the New York Yankees. He'd be a fascinating addition to Boston's pitching staff, presumably as a starter, and it'll also be interesting to see how the Red Sox alleviate their impending rotation logjam with Garrett Whitlock also on the mend.
3. What's sustainable?
The Red Sox's recent success has been fueled by a series of breakouts: Alex Verdugo is playing at an All-Star level. Masataka Yoshida is justifying Boston's hefty offseason investment. Jarren Duran has been nothing short of electric. Connor Wong looks like a solid MLB catcher. Kutter Crawford and Josh Winckowski both have been tremendous out of the bullpen. So, what's real? Tune in (starting Friday night at 6 p.m. ET on NESN) to find out.
