Patriots Writing Familiar Mac Jones-Era Script; Can They Flip It?

A lot has changed for Mac Jones and the Patriots since the day he arrived in New England.

They're on their third offensive coordinator. Some of the pass-catchers and O-linemen are different. The defense arguably is better now than it was then. Even Gillette Stadium underwent a big makeover.

And yet, through three games, it's hard to shake the feeling that things kinda feel the same. In particular, the Patriots' start to the 2023 campaign feels eerily similar to the way things began in each of Jones' first two seasons in Foxboro.

Just so you know, this isn't going to be an overly scientific or analytics-driven analysis. We're not breaking down the film or going over the stats from Pro Football Focus. This is all about the vibes we're getting from a team that, if it loses to the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, will have started 1-3 for the third consecutive season.

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First, let's look at Mac Jones' stats for the first three games of each campaign, along with New England's point differentials.

2021
-- 737 yards, two touchdowns, three interceptions
-- Patriots outscore opponents, 54-51
2022
-- 786 yards, two touchdowns, five interceptions
-- Patriots outscored, 50-71
2023
-- 748 yards, five touchdowns, two interceptions
-- Patriots outscored, 52-59

Now, let's break down each matchup.

2021
Week 1: Patriots 16, Dolphins 17
-- Lost game they should've won because of turnovers/unforced mistakes.
Week 2: Patriots 25, Jets 6
-- Won game they were supposed to win against inferior opponent.
Week 3: Patriots 13, Saints 28
-- Gave illusion of competing with superior team but deserved to lose.

2022
Patriots 7, Dolphins 20
-- Lost game they could've won but lost because of turnovers/mistakes.
Patriots 17, Steelers 14
-- Won game they were supposed to win against inferior opponent.
Patriots 26, Ravens 37
-- Gave illusion of competing with superior team but deserved to lose.

2023
Patriots 20, Eagles 25
-- Lost game they could've won because of turnovers/unforced mistakes.
Patriots 17, Dolphins 24
-- Gave illusion of competing with superior team but deserved to lose.
Patriots 15, Jets 10
-- Won game they were supposed to win against inferior opponent.

Were some of those a stretch? Maybe. Were we being overly simplistic to support our own narrative? Definitely. But you really don't need to squint all that much to see familiar three-game storylines since Jones entered the NFL.

Plus, it's about how the Patriots looked in those games. Turnovers, penalties, general sloppy play and not winning on the margins were common themes. The Patriots too often made the kinds of mistakes you rarely saw during the Tom Brady era. And Belichick too often coached not to lose, rather than to win.

Finally, let's look at the Week 4 contests, which is where things really get interesting.

In 2021, everyone expected New England to get smoked when Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccanneers invaded Gillette Stadium for a Week 4 matchup. There was no way Jones would get the job done. However, the then-rookie held his own and probably should've won, but the Patriots lost 19-17 after a questionable fourth-down decision from Belichick.

The next season, few expected the 1-2 Patriots to hang with Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers in their own stadium. Jones was out due to an ankle injury, with New England forced to start Brian Hoyer. And things looked even bleaker when then-rookie Bailey Zappe was forced to relieve Hoyer in the first quarter. But Zappe nearly pulled off a miracle, ultimately falling 27-24 in overtime after another iffy fourth-down decision.

In both cases, the Patriots nearly scored a major upset to avoid a 1-3 start -- but fell short each time. And, well, the stage might be set for a similar outcome this Sunday.

New England will visit the 2-1 Cowboys, who as of Thursday afternoon were listed as 6.5-point favorites. Nobody's picking the Patriots, regardless of how bad Dallas played last Sunday against the Arizona Cardinals or how banged up its offensive line is.

But this is where we cut it out with the negativity and make a case for New England finally breaking through.

The Patriots are better than they were last season, and easily are more talented than they were in 2021. The defense is deeper and more athletic, and Jones is playing a better -- though still not great -- brand of football. Even the special teams is closer to the standard Belichick expects.

And the Cowboys are, well, still the Cowboys.

They have a ton of talent, but as the loss to Arizona proved, Mike McCarthy still is quite capable of laying a head-coaching egg. Dak Prescott still can turn the ball over with the best of them. The defense is formidable and is led by the exceptional Micah Parsons, but their best cornerback is done for the season. CeeDee Lamb is the only pass-catcher that should worry New England's defense. Three starting O-linemen might sit out.

So, why shouldn't the Patriots have a chance this Sunday? If you ask us, they faced tougher challenges in their last two Week 4 matchups, and they probably should've won both.

But that's the story of the Jones-era Patriots, isn't it? Close, but no cigar. Should've been 2-2, but had no one to blame but themselves for being 1-3. Tantalizingly close to good, but ultimately mediocre.

Will this time be different?

The football world expects the Patriots to write the same old script this weekend. It's time for them to flip it.