Defenses and kickers both should be ignored until the final two rounds of your draft, but for different reasons.
Kickers are a crap shoot in September. The good news, though, is that we've found an educated way to continuously assess them during the season once we get at least two weeks of 2009 data.
Defenses are easier to identify. But successful owners mix and match week to week using the waiver wire to attack the weakest offenses. And lucky for you, we're going to use the same tool that we're using for kickers to pick off those weakest offenses ? the ones who can't protect their passer, can't find the red zone with a GPS, don't convert third downs, and pass and run most poorly on a per-attempt basis.
Beginning September 22nd, check here for our weekly Fantasy Football Power Rankings. For now, check out the Final 2008 rankings of all 32 offenses ranked based on how they did in those aforementioned key categories.
While the expressed purpose of these rankings is to find the offensive environments that are most conducive to fantasy scoring (irrespective of how many fantasy points said offenses have actually generated), it's also great for picking free agent defenses. Just go up from the bottom and stop when you find a cellar-dwelling offense facing a defense available on your league's waiver wire. Rinse and repeat every week and I guarantee you'll be at least middle of the pack in defensive scoring.
The key stat for choosing kickers in our rankings is red zone possessions. From there, you can prioritize based on the home surface (indoors or cold weather), success on long-distance kicks (for leagues that reward that, as all should) and career track record.
Kicker is the one time in your draft when you must check bye weeks. The kickers who generally meet the requirements above and who are off very late in the season (the byes end in Week 10) are the ones to get. Take a kicker with an early bye and, even if you love him, you're probably going to have to cut him because you never want to carry two kickers for the same reason you don't want to draft two.
The objective is to reserve as many roster spots as you can for receivers and runners because things pop every week with injuries and other personnel changes. Cheap starters at these positions generally are always far more important to a championship quest.
Now, for some very tentative recommendations. More important than the recommendations is the methodology. Learn it and you'll be able to fish free agency for kickers and defenses all year.
Buy
Kris Brown, Texans: He has the latest bye ? Week 10. He's good (87.9 success rate last year). The Texans were eighth last year in red zone possessions and I'll be that number is going up. And they play in great conditions ? Houston with a retractable roof.
Ryan Longwell, Vikings: Minnesota (Week 9 bye) was 25th in red zone possessions last year. But Brett Favre led the Jets to a sixth-overall ranking here and the Vikings have a very comparable supporting cast. Longwell has as good a chance as anyone in the field to lead the league in attempts.
Saints Defense: Mix and match right away. New Orleans gets Detroit Week 1 at home. That's a rookie QB, Matthew Stafford, who struggled in his last preseason game. The Lions line is a major question mark. Yes, you're beat come Week 2, but those points are in the book. Then, broom the Saints and add the Redskins at home versus a Rams team that still can't protect the QB.
Hold
Ravens and Vikings defenses: The Ravens (Week Seven bye) have a great division schedule with the Steelers (25th), Browns (27th) and Bengals (29th) all at the bottom of our 2008 offensive rankings. The Vikings (Week Nine bye) also face all four teams from the AFC North and get the Lions twice.
Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots: He's off Week 8. New England finished second in red zone possessions last year and should lead the league this year. But Tom Brady will convert a solid majority into TDs ? not the ideal scenario for kickers.
Sell
Kickers with early byes: John Kasay, David Akers and Jason Elam come to mind, all of whom are off Week 4. Of course, after Week 4, gobble these guys up if they're on the Waiver Wire. Even Neil Rackers, also off that week, can end up being a weapon at the position.
Patriots Defense: It's a name brand, but they were ordinary last year at the key fantasy stats: 13th in sack percentage and 12th in interception rate. The personnel changes could make them better, but just as reasonably could make them worse.
