The key is to draft players who will provide more value to your team than their draft position would suggest. Sometimes, this occurs because a hitter enjoys a lucky year in terms of his batting average on balls in play (BABIP), or a pitcher strands more baserunners than usual, but those variations are unpredictable. The best value picks are often the breakout players of a given season, who improve their performance over the past year by leaps and bounds, and give plenty of bang for your proverbial buck.
Here are the top 15 breakout candidates for the 2010 season.
Kyle Blanks
In his rookie season last year, Kyle Blanks put the league on notice by smacking 10 home runs in just 148 at-bats. But perhaps even more impressively, the 23-year-old drew 18 walks, compensating for his lowly .250 batting average with a .355 on-base percentage.
Blanks is a mammoth 6-foot-6, 285-pounder whose future is at first base for the Padres, where he will replace Adrian Gonzalez once Gonzo is traded or leaves in free agency. For now, though, he?ll start in left field, and despite playing half of his games at Petco, Blanks has the power to reach 25-30 homers in his first full big league season.
Matt Wieters
Wieters may be the most obvious player on this list, but there also may not be a more surefire breakout candidate this season. The switch-hitting backstop hit .288 with nine homers during his rookie season for the Orioles, but took awhile to adapt his approach to big league pitching.
By September, Wieters was done adapting and was ready to hit, logging a .362 average and three homers during the final month of the season. Building on that performance, a batting average over .300 and 15-plus homers is likely in the offing — both of which are extremely valuable from your catcher.
Brett Anderson
Few 21-year-old pitchers arrive in the majors with the maturity that A?s rookie Brett Anderson displayed last year, when he won 11 games and posted a 4.06 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. In 14 starts after the All-Star Break, the young southpaw showed excellent feel for his fastball, slider and changeup, posting a terrific 86-to-20 K/BB ratio that led to a 3.48 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.
Anderson already fits that rare mold of pitchers who have strikeout stuff, yet are able to induce grounders on more than 50 percent of the balls hit in play against them. All of that could add up to a full season which would put him nearly on par with Johan Santana, who is being selected significantly earlier in drafts.
Sean Rodriguez
Spring training statistics are often meaningless, but when a talented prospect is trying to earn a job, they can make the difference between a spot in the majors and a ticket back to the minors. Sean Rodriguez is in the running to play second base for Tampa Bay, and he?s certainly done his part, batting .425 this spring with a league-high six homers in just 40 at-bats.
The 24-year-old has done plenty of mashing throughout his minor league career and hit 30 homers in 385 at-bats at the Triple-A level last season. Rodriguez still strikes out too much and is unlikely to bat over .270, but if he?s handed an everyday spot in the Rays? lineup, he could do a good Dan Uggla impression, and will be available far later in the draft than Uggla.
Carlos Gonzalez
For a top prospect, Gonzalez did a lot of moving during his minor league days, from the Diamondbacks to the A?s, and finally to the Rockies in the Matt Holliday trade last winter. Now in an optimal environment for fantasy contribution, the 24-year-old outfielder hit .284 with 13 homers in 278 at-bats, and stole 16 bases in 89 games.
Coors Field certainly helped his numbers, but Gonzalez?s talent is undeniable, and his 14 doubles and seven triples suggest that there?s more power coming. He?s likely to bat near the top of manager Jim Tracy?s lineup, which would give him plenty of opportunities to steal. Remember Matt Kemp as a favorite 30-homer, 30-steal candidate in the top 10 picks of the draft? Gonzalez has the tools to approach those levels, and you can get him 100 picks later.
Wade Davis
We saw Davis, one of the Rays? top prospects, get his feet wet toward the end of last season, and he made the most of his MLB debut by going 2-2 with a 3.72 ERA and 36 strikeouts in 36 1/3 innings over six starts. The 24-year-old righty has excellent control of a mid-90s fastball, which he complements primarily with a plus curveball and a good sinker.
The Rays announced on Wednesday that he will serve as their No. 5 starter in 2010. A dozen wins, coupled with a sub-4.00 ERA and more than 150 strikeouts could be in store, giving Davis arguably the biggest upside of any pitcher likely to be on the board after the 15th round.
Nolan Reimold
Reimold is often the forgotten man in a talented Orioles outfield with Adam Jones and Nick Markakis, but you?d be wise to remember him in the low double-digit rounds of your draft. The 26-year-old hit .279 with 15 homers in 358 at-bats last season and did not have a discernible platoon split against lefties or righties.
That gives Reimold an excellent chance of playing every day in the future, making him a candidate to contribute 25 homers and 15 steals annually, starting with this season. You?d have to look all the way up to Hunter Pence to find another player capable of such an effort, and that?s a disparity of more than 50 picks in the draft.
Gordon Beckham
Second base is the shallowest position in terms of fantasy talent this season, so breakout candidates are especially valuable there. Gordon Beckham — who played third base last year — is moving to second and will gain eligibility there by mid-April, and his 25-30 homer potential is far rarer at the keystone than at the hot corner.
The 23-year-old hit .270 with 14 long balls and 63 RBIs in just 378 at-bats last year, and there?s plenty more where that came from. While your opponents are scooping aging veterans like Derrek Lee or overpaying for saves with Francisco Rodriguez in the eighth round, consider drafting Beckham — you?ll thank his Jeff Kent-like upside at second base later.
Yovani Gallardo
It?s hard to believe that a pitcher who struck out 204 batters and won 13 games last year could be a breakout candidate, but Gallardo is talented enough to fit the bill. Still just 24 years old, Gallardo is blessed with four above-average pitches, but struggled to control them last season, partially offsetting his tremendous 9.89 K/9 rate with a bloated 4.56 BB/9.
If Gallardo can trim his walk rate to 3.75 per nine innings or below, while retaining his ability to whiff more than a batter per inning, he could be one of the top five fantasy starting pitchers this season, even though most players will have him ranked outside their top 10.
Geovany Soto
In a way, Geovany Soto has already broken out — after all, he was the National League Rookie of the Year in 2008. But after he hit just .218 with 11 homers in 331 at-bats and lost playing time to Koyie Hill last season, it?s easy to forget that Soto probably still has the ability to bat .285 with 23 homers as he did two years ago.
In fact, Soto?s .246 BABIP last season, compared to his career mark of .305, suggests that a rebound is in order, and the 27-year-old is more than worth the gamble if you miss out on top backstops like Joe Mauer and Brian McCann. The risk averse will probably settle for Mike Napoli or Bengie Molina in the late rounds, but if your team doesn?t have a catcher around the 15th, Soto could be a bargain.
Corey Hart
The 6-foot-6, 229 pound Hart is another player who fits the post-hype mold, and is more likely to bounce back to his previous level of performance than to break out. However, in 2007-08, the Brewers? right fielder posted consecutive 20-plus home run, 20-plus stolen base campaigns, which are extremely valuable, regardless of when you get them in the draft.
After posting a lowly .260 average and just 12 homers and 11 steals in 2009 though, Hart is actually going undrafted in some leagues. Considering that other 20-20 outfielders, such as Adam Jones and Nate McLouth, are taken in the first 10 rounds, Hart is certainly worth a gamble a hundred or more picks after they?re gone.
Chris Davis
Two years ago, Davis drilled 17 homers in 295 at-bats over 80 games, and suddenly the fantasy world was gloating over his 35 homer potential. But he dropped with a thud last season, batting just .238 and striking out 150 times in 391 at-bats. The key, though, is that Davis still hit 21 prodigious blasts out of the ballpark, and his inability to make contact more often may have been primarily a mental issue.
Davis is still only 24 years old, and even with top prospect Justin Smoak breathing down his neck, he has the potential to emulate Adam Dunn or Carlos Pena. And the key is that while you?d have to spend one of your first 10 picks to land one of those two mashers, Davis is unlikely to go before the 13th round.
Max Scherzer
Those who criticized the Diamondbacks? decision to trade for Edwin Jackson were surprised by the team?s willingness to part with 2006 first-round pick Max Scherzer, and rightly so, as his potential fantasy value suggests. Scherzer was just 9-11 in 30 starts for Arizona last season and struggled to work deep into games, but the 25-year-old has an outstanding fastball-slider-changeup arsenal that resulted in 174 strikeouts over 170 1/3 innings.
Hence, if he?s able to stay healthy while averaging six-plus innings a start, a 200 strikeout season is possible in his first year with the Tigers — and there aren?t many 200 strikeout guys available in the late rounds of your draft.
Jonathan Sanchez
Speaking of potential 200-strikeout pitchers, the Giants? Jonathan Sanchez has been a breakout candidate for a couple of seasons now, but he finally seemed to gain the confidence necessary to succeed in the majors after hurling a no-hitter against the Padres in July.
The 27-year-old southpaw is coming off a second half during which he posted a 3.83 ERA and 1.24 WHIP while fanning 98 batters in 84 2/3 innings, and his 26.2 percent swing-and-miss rate is among the best in baseball. Projecting that kind of performance over a full season?s worth of innings would make Sanchez — a 14th or 15th round pick according to the NESN rankings — a shoo-in for 200 K?s.
Jay Bruce
Rewind to the spring of 2008, and you?ll find Reds outfielder Jay Bruce ranked as the No. 1 prospect in all of baseball. Bruce started his career on the right note, bashing 21 homers in 413 at-bats during his rookie season, but he also struck out 110 times and hit just .254. He improved in both regards last season, whiffing 75 times in 345 at-bats, while hitting 22 homers, but his average dropped to .223.
If you?re willing to chalk that up to a ridiculous .221 BABIP, then the 23-year-old Bruce has the potential to hit in the .250-.260 range with 30-plus bombs — a terrific value in the double-digit rounds.
Hungry for more? Check out NESN.com's top 300 fantasy baseball players.
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