NFL Odds: Revisiting Preseason Win Totals For Worst Teams After Four Weeks

Some teams are even falling short of preseason expectations

by Mike Cole

Oct 8, 2020

We’re starting to get a better understanding of what the NFL looks like in 2020 now that we have a quarter of the season behind us.

To say it’s been a weird start to the year would be a bit of an understatement, as the COVID-19 pandemic lingers, affecting the sport directly and indirectly at the same time.

As part of our NFL betting preview before the season, we looked at the teams most likely to finish with the worst record.

Here are the teams we outlined:

Jacksonville Jaguars (+250 to have worst record, win total: 4.5)
After Week 1, a win over the revamped Indianapolis Colts, it looked like maybe Jacksonville would be frisky this season. So much for that. The Jaguars have lost three straight, including a Thursday night home game against Miami and last week in Cincinnati. It appears the Jags are right back on track to be among the NFL’s worst.

Washington Football Team (+600 worst record, win total: 5)
On one hand, Washington is just a half-game back in the NFC East. That, however, says far more about the division than Washington. The Football Team is 1-3, and while that 6-to-1 worst record might not cash, the under looks pretty good. Ron Rivera has his team playing tough, but there’s just not enough talent. And that was before Chase Young got hurt. The recent quarterback switch is a sign of where things are in D.C.

Carolina Panthers (+700 worst record, win total: 5.5)
The 7-to-1 for worst record seemed halfway decent in early September. It looked even better when Christian McCaffrey went down with an ankle injury that will cost him about a month and a half. But those down on Carolina to start the season either didn’t consider or give enough attention to two things: Teddy Bridgewater is a more-than-decent quarterback option, while first-year head coach Matt Rhule is getting some early buy-in from his players. At 2-2, Carolina — for the moment, at least — feels more like a playoff sleeper than the NFL’s worst team.

Cincinnati Bengals (+700 worst record, win total: 5.5)
If you got down on the Bengals to have the NFL’s worst record, you were dealt a tough blow early on by way of their Week 3 tie against Philadelphia. That helps an “under” win total bet, though. All in all, the Bengals have been pretty competitive, as Joe Burrow looks like the real deal. If he gets hurt, the season is a lost cause. If not, there figure to be a few teams worse than Cincinnati when the dust settles.

Speaking of, here are the teams that might as well start draft prep now.

New York Giants (+1400 worst record, win total: 6.5)
We probably should have seen this coming for the Giants, who started the season with a brutal four-game stretch against Pittsburgh, Chicago, San Francisco and the Rams. Factor in myriad offensive injuries — headlined by the loss of Saquon Barkley for the year — and it’s a lost season for the G-Men.

New York Jets (+1200 worst record, win total: 6.5)
Speaking of lost seasons, the Jets are back in that boat again. Adam Gase feels like a dead man walking at this point, and a race to the bottom could leave Sam Darnold without a home if the Jets secure the No. 1 pick — something that’s very much in play after an 0-4 start with the NFL’s worst point differential.

Houston Texans (+2500 worst record, win total: 7.5)
If you had Houston to have the NFL’s worst record, you’re feeling pretty good about the way this season is going. The same could be said for anyone holding “first coach fired” tickets with Bill O’Brien, who was let go earlier this week. There’s probably too much talent for Houston to be the NFL’s worst team, but stranger things have happened.

Thumbnail photo via Vincent Carchietta/USA TODAY Sports Images

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