Nick Pivetta has been the most profitable Boston Red Sox pitcher in 2021.
The Sox have won 14 of Pivetta’s 22 starts this season and eight of 11 at Fenway Park. And the best part about betting on Pivetta is that he’s been extremely cost-effective. The right hander is usually a favorite in the -125 to -150 range — or he’s an underdog — so the damage isn’t too bad if Boston loses.
2021 Red Sox pitcher profits
Nick Pivetta: 14-8, +5.35 units
Eduardo Rodriguez: 14-8, +5.15 units
Martin Perez: 12-10, +1.15 units
Garrett Richards: 11-11, +0.40 units
Tanner Houck: 3-3, -0.35 units
Nate Eovaldi: 12-11, -2.40 units
However, Pivetta’s betting price on Friday night is the most expensive it’s been all season. Boston opened as a -260 favorite (!) against the Baltimore Orioles with a total of O/U 11. The initial push showed for the O’s, so the Red Sox moved in to -250 on the moneyline.
You still have to risk $250 to win $100. No thanks. I’ll never, ever advise you to lay -250 on a baseball game. That’s certainly not something you want to make a habit out of.
Let’s do some quick math based on bets to win $100.
Ten wins at -250 is +$1,000.
Ten losses at -250 is -$2,500.
I’m not exactly in a hurry to bet Baltimore either. It takes some serious stones to put your hard-earned money on a baseball team that’s 37 games under .500. The O’s offense is bottom five in on-base percentage and bottom seven in runs scored. And rookie starter Spenser Watkins could very easily run into trouble in his first start on Jersey Street.
There’s really no betting edge either way. The risk isn’t worth the reward on Boston and Baltimore is on pace to lose 105 games. So I’m staying far, far away from this one.
As for Red Sox future odds, they’re now as high as +500 ($100 wins $500) to win the American League East, +850 for the American League pennant and 18-to-1 to go all the way and win the World Series.
Meanwhile, Chicago White Sox shortstop Tim Anderson’s walk-off homer into the corn Thursday night bumped the New York Yankees seven games out of first place in the AL East. Baseball Reference gives them just a 1.7 percent chance to win the division.
“Predict the Game” returns to NESN on Friday night. Our first question goes live at 6:30 p.m. ET on “Red Sox GameDay LIVE,” and throughout the night, you’ll see predictive baseball questions to answer on our broadcast. The participant who scores the most points during the Sox-O’s game will win an autographed Rafael Devers baseball.
Head over to NESN.com/PredictTheGame to create your account now.
It’s free to play and free to win!