Last weekend’s football picks went 1-2 thanks to Sam Darnold singlehandedly keeping the Patriots-Panthers game “Under” the posted total with a myriad of dumb decisions and turnovers.
If you’re new around these parts, this is not a place where you’ll find a million betting picks. I isolate the ones I really, really like and roll with those. Nothing more, nothing less. Don’t expect to see any five-team parlays or “locks” on primetime games, either.
Let’s go to work.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-7.5, O/U 63) at Virginia Cavaliers
Reports aren’t great about Cavaliers quarterback Brennan Armstrong’s status for Saturday night’s game in Charlottesville. This line was Notre Dame -5.5 two days ago and now the market has crossed through the most key number in football. I think there’s a good chance Armstrong plays, but if he doesn’t, the Hoos still have more than enough playmakers to put up points. This is the highest total of any Irish game all season, so bookmakers clearly forecast a back-and-forth affair.
Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5, O/U 52) at Las Vegas Raiders
I’ll be shocked if the Chiefs don’t take care of business this weekend. They have been severely downgraded by oddsmakers after a 2-7 ATS start, but enough is enough. Kansas City being less than a field goal favorite at Las Vegas is total disrespect. This spread before the season was KC -6.5 and I’m sorry, but just there’s no way you can justify a four point adjustment. It’s time to bet on Patrick Mahomes and that talented offense to make a statement on national television.
New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans (-3, 44)
This line stinks. Why are the first place Titans only a 2.5 to 3-point home favorite against New Orleans? That doesn’t even make sense. Especially considering that the Titans just rolled the Rams last Sunday night and the Saints lost to the Falcons. I spoke to a couple oddsmakers that told me their true number was a pick ’em here, which was surprising. Derrick Henry will be missed against a very good New Orleans defensive front and Sean Payton is 8-0-1 ATS in his last nine games as an underdog.
Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals (-10.5, 44)
I knew Carolina would make my list once Sam Darnold was officially ruled out. His time as a starting quarterback in the NFL is likely over and it’s about damn time. Expect offensive coordinator Joe Brady to get extra creative with P.J. Walker at quarterback and maybe sprinkle in some Wildcat, too. The Cardinals are a banged up football team right now and this spread is just too big. The Panthers will score enough points and their defense will keep them inside the number. This could easily be a 24-20 final.
RECORD: (70-67, +9.6)