We’re heading into the final stretch of the 2021 NFL season, with teams looking to make the final push toward the postseason. This year, there are a few surprises in the AFC, with standout teams hoping to represent the conference in the Super Bowl.
Take a look below and find out which teams are rising to the top.
Top 10, FanDuel Sportsbook, Dec. 15
Kansas City Chiefs +260
New England Patriots +340
Buffalo Bills +600
Tennessee Titans +800
Los Angeles Chargers +950
Indianapolis Colts +1300
Baltimore Ravens +1300
Cleveland Browns +1600
Cincinnati Bengals +2100
Denver Broncos +5000
All NFL game predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid.
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Kansas City Chiefs
Current Odds: +260
After an up and down start to the season, the Kansas City Chiefs have reemerged as the favorites to represent the AFC in Super Bowl LVI. Currently, on a six-game win streak, the high-powered Chiefs have a +98 point differential and have improved their ranking defensively, which was at one time last in the league, to currently 17th in DVOA (per Football Outsiders). Offensively, Kansas City ranks 12th (per PFF), mostly in part to the dynamic play ability of quarterback Patrick Mahomes and a receiving corps featuring Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, who are responsible for more than 48% of the Chiefs’ target share. Because of the essentially matchup-proof duo in the receiving corps, Kansas City is among the more pass-heavy teams in the league, using a 64%/36% pass-to-run ratio (per Rotoviz) and are also one of the fastest-paced teams in the league, averaging a 25.4 second per snap pace.
With the return of running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who missed six weeks with a knee injury, the Chiefs have vastly improved their running game, responsible for 49% of the workload of carries, averaging 3.61 yards per carry this season.
Posting an AFC West-leading 9-4 record, the Chiefs finish out the regular season with a Thursday night matchup against the Los Angles Chargers, followed by meetings with the Pittsburgh Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals and Denver Broncos, all with an eye toward the playoffs and a return to the Super Bowl.
New England Patriots
Current Odds: +340
New England has been one of the biggest surprises this season. New England has returned to dominance after a disappointing 7-9 record last season, currently sitting atop the AFC East with a 9-4 record, winning their last seven games.
Ranked as the top offense, according to PFF, the Patriots have relied on rookie quarterback Mac Jones, who has steadily improved throughout the season. After 13 starts, Jones has a 70.3% completion rate, throwing for 2,869 yards and 16 touchdowns, taking a more balanced approach to their play calling, using a 53%/47% pass-to-run play calling split and have methodically moved the ball down the field, playing as the fifth slowest team in the league, averaging a 28.1 second per snap pace. Second-year wide out Jakobi Meyers has emerged as the lead beneficiary to the passing game, seeing 23% of the target share, seeing five or more targets in 10 games this year. On the ground, Damien Harris looks to have established himself as the lead running back, responsible for 47% of the carries in the backfield, averaging 13.7 carries per game and 4.6 yards per carry.
A traditionally stout defense, the Patriots rank second in DVOA, allowing 310 yards per game on defense, the third-lowest in the league. Closing out the season, New England looks to have a more difficult schedule to start, facing the Indianapolis Colts and Buffalo Bills, followed by easier matchups in the Jacksonville Jaguars and Miami Dolphins.
Buffalo Bills
Current Odds: +600
In recent weeks, the Buffalo Bills have fallen, an early-season favorite to win the AFC championship, currently sitting second in the AFC East with a 7-6 record. Buffalo has gone 2-4 since Nov. 7, keeping a +14-point differential as the 16th rated offense. Led by the versatile quarterback Josh Allen, the Bills employ a 62%/38% pass-to-run play calling ratio, the 12th-most pass-friendly offense, using a 26 second per snap pace. In the receiving corps, Allen looks to have a plethora of weapons in Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, Dawson Knox and Emmanuel Sanders, who all have more than 14% of the share in targets. On the ground, Devin Singletary leads the backfield with a 34% share of carries, splitting the workload with Allen, Zack Moss and Matt Brieda. Singletary is averaging 4.88 yards per carry and 8.6 attempts per game as the lead back.
Closing out the season, the Bills look to have difficult meetings with the Panthers and Patriots, followed by a more manageable schedule against the Atlanta Falcons and New York Jets. If the season ended today, the Bills would sit as the seventh seed, creating a sense of urgency in turning around their current downswing.
