Milwaukee Bucks vs. New Orleans Pelicans: Spread, Line, Odds, Predictions, and Algorithm Picks from the SportsGrid Betting Model

The Sportsgrid NBA Betting Model likes the Pelicans in this matchup. According to the model, New Orleans has a 61.31 percent chance of winning,  a fair moneyline of -158, and an expected margin of victory of 3.4 points. In comparison, Fanduel Sportsbook has the Pelicans’ moneyline at +118 and a +2.4-point spread. New Orleans couldn’t pick a better time to face the Bucks. Milwaukee has won five of its past seven games, but Wednesday’s win came with seven players sidelined by injury or illness.

On Tuesday, the Bucks put three players into COVID-19 protocols, including Giannis Antetokounmpo. Antetokounmpo leads Milwaukee in scoring and rebounding, averaging 27 points and 11.6 boards. He’s also second on the team in assists with 5.8 per game. Despite pulling off the win with Antetokounmpo sidelined, Milwaukee isn’t the same team without the former MVP.

Meanwhile, the Pelicans have lost three of their previous five. New Orleans has leaned heavily on Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas while without Zion Williamson all season because of a foot injury. Ingram leads the team in scoring with 23.4 points while adding 6.3 rebounds and 4.9 assists per game. Valanciunas is second in team scoring, averaging 18.7 points, and he leads the team pulling down 12.1 boards a night.

New Orleans’ previous game saw Ingram lead all scorers with 34 points, and Valanciunas lead all rebounders with 16 in their 113-110 win over the Thunder. The Bucks’ previous game saw them win 114-99 over the Pacers, on the back of Jrue Holiday’s game-high 26 points. Milwaukee will have to rely on Holiday more with so many players out of the lineup. He averages 16.4 points and 6.5 assists per game.

The good news for the Bucks is Khris Middleton might return to the lineup. He’s listed as probable for Friday’s game after missing Wednesday with a knee injury. When healthy, Milwaukee is one of the better scoring teams in the NBA. They’re ninth overall, averaging 110.6 points per game, while the Pelicans are 27th, averaging only 104 points. The over/under has been set at 217, while the model predicts a total of 228.5 points, so look to the over.