Three Sure-Shot Super Bowl LVI Bets

The 56th Super Bowl will place this Sunday, February 13th, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. Even though the Rams play their games at SoFi, they’re technically the visiting team because the NFL rotates the home teams for each Super Bowl. As a result, the Rams will be in the visiting locker room, but they will have the opportunity to call the coin toss as the away team. That’s just one of the unique quirks in this year’s game that’s certain to draw plenty of interest die-hard and casual football fans. If you’re a sports bettor, hopefully, you’ve already gotten your action in, considering that betting lines have already been available for quite some time. However, if you’re late to the party and still a bit undecided, here are three plays you might want to consider adding to your portfolio.

ALT Total Under 49.5 (-120)

The total for this game opened up at 50 and it was quickly bet down to 49.5 before dropping even lower to 48.5. The line move does make some sense given how Super Bowls tend to get off to a slow start. Between the drawn-out pre-game ceremonies and the lengthy halftime show, it’s fair to say it’s an event that’s completely different from anything the players will face in their professional careers.

Moreover, considering how both coaches are likely to approach the game, it shouldn’t surprise anyone if they take a more conservative route in their play calling. For example, we’ve seen the Rams run the ball more during the playoffs (47.78%) than during the regular season (41%). That decision could be intentional to protect quarterback Matthew Stafford, who threw eight interceptions in the final four regular-season games.

We’ve also seen some correlation in the rushing yards prop for Rams running back Cam Akers. Sharp bettors were keen to bet the over on Akers’ yardage prop as it now sits at 64.5.

Lastly, here are some key trends to provide additional support for the under:

• The under is 154-128-2 for +12.25 units this season.
• The total is 7-3 to the under in the Super Bowl, with an opening total of at least 48.5 points.

With 49 being a key number in the NFL, I recommend buying the total up to 49.5 and playing the under.

Tyler Boyd (Bengals) under 39.5 receiving yards (-106)

I wanted to find an under for a player prop and Cincinnati Bengals wideout Tyler Boyd’s receiving yards seems to check all the boxes. The sixth-year veteran is essentially the third receiving option in the Bengals offense and his production has waned in each of his past four games. Frankly, I don’t see a scenario where the Bengals offensive line will give quarterback Joe Burrow sufficient time to get to the third and fourth reads in his progression.

We’ve seen Tee Higgins average 99.5 receiving yards in Cincinnati’s past two games as the second receiver, while Bengals running back Joe Mixon is also playing a more significant role in the passing game with 29 targets in the past five games. Boyd seems like the odd man out in this spot which creates inherent value on the under in his receiving prop.

Bengals 2H +2 (-110)

I’ll keep this one very brief. If you expect the Bengals to be chasing the game, I think you have to play them against the spread in the second half despite your Rams’ bias. This season, Cincinnati was the best second-half team in the league as it’s 15-4-1 ATS, including 7-1-1 ATS as an underdog and a perfect 3-0 ATS in the postseason. We could see more of the same on Sunday, so I’ll happily take a shot with the Bengals in the second half.