Calgary Flames vs. Colorado Avalanche Betting Guide: Flames Could Get Doused in Denver

by SportsGrid

Calgary Flames vs. Colorado Avalanche Moneyline, Total, and Odds

Moneyline: Flames +128 | Avalanche -156

Spread: Flames +1.5 (-205) | Avalanche -1.5 (+164)

Total: 6.5 Over +106 | Under -114

Odds to Win the Stanley Cup

Calgary Flames +1000
Colorado Avalanche +400

All NHL betting lines and odds are provided by FanDuel.

Calgary Flames vs. Colorado AvalancheNews, Analysis, and Picks

It takes a special team to drop the Colorado Avalanche’s moneyline odds below the -200 range at home and that’s the case when the Calgary Flames come to town on Sunday. However, a few factors are being overlooked, contributing to the betting market underestimating Colorado’s chances, which leads to some value on the home side tonight in Denver.

For starters, the Flames are playing on the second night of a back-to-back and may have misplayed their analytics cards. Calgary elected to start primary goalie Jacob Markstrom last night against the inferior Detroit Red Wings. Now, they’ll have to get past one of the best teams in the league with backup Dan Vladar. Vladar has posted a cumulative 86.9 save percentage over his past four starts, with only one of those performances eclipsing 90%.

We also can’t look past Calgary’s recent efforts. The Flames have been outplayed in four of their past seven, a span in which they are 5-1-1. Their PDO has climbed to 1.045 over that stretch across all strengths, elevating their season-long rating to the eighth-highest in the league. Calgary is playing on unsustainable footing and a letdown is coming.

The Avalanche’s chances are being impacted by their recent slide in which they’ve dropped four of their past five, including one to the Flames last week. Still, we’re anticipating more wins to follow, as they’ve outplayed three of their opponents during that stretch. That reversal should come at home, where the Avs are averaging 4.1 goals per game on 13.1 high-danger and 34.2 scoring chances per game across all strengths.

We are buying low on the Avalanche as they host a Flames team with a few factors working against them. Colorado can use home-ice to their advantage to snap out of their recent rut.

The Pick: Avalanche -161

All NHL predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid.