Red Sox Odds: Boston-Chicago Getting Sharp Action ‘Under’ Run Total
BOS-CHI opened 8 and quickly moved to 7.5
The Boston Red Sox are no longer the best “Under” team in baseball.
After starting 17-7-2 to the “Under,” the Red Sox offense has catapulted the club to 79 runs over the last two weeks. Boston is averaging 6.5 runs per game over this 12-game heat wave (7-3-2 “Overs”), which is 2.5 runs higher than what the Sox generated during the season’s first month.
All that said, it would be silly to expect the Sox to stay scorching hot at the plate forever. Sure, Boston will face a sub-.500 team in 10 of its next 13 games, but unfair expectations don’t help anybody.
Respected money is already shorting offense in Tuesday night’s game between the Red Sox and Chicago White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field. Nick Pivetta (2-4, 4.22 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) opposes Dylan Cease (4-1, 3.09 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) and the run total opened O/U 8.
That number lasted a few hours before it was blasted down to 7.5 everywhere.
“I couldn’t believe they hung an 8,” one professional bettor told NESN. “Cease has the most strikeouts in baseball and his control is the best it’s been over his career. And Pivetta has been a completely different pitcher over the last month. That knuckle curve is buckling hitters and keeping them off-balance.”
Sounds like somebody likes the “Under.”
“It’s easy to get caught up in what a team has done recently,” the bettor added. “Recency bias can be dangerous when sample sizes are low. The Red Sox hitting ‘Unders’ at a 63% clip over 40 games is much more important than posting four straight ‘Overs’ in 80-to-90-degree Boston weather.”
Anybody who reads NESN Bets or listens to “Chicken Dinner” knows how much I love Dylan Cease this season. I’ve got a bet on him at +800 to win the AL Cy Young ($100 wins $800) and the flame-throwing righty is striking out an insane 13.8 hitters per nine innings of work. Sheesh.
I respect the market move on this total and wouldn’t be surprised to see a 3-2 final score.
Red Sox-White Sox Under 7.5 runs -105
RECORD: (116-111, +33.0)
