NFL Odds: Three Bets To Make On Defending AFC East Champion Bills

Buffalo Over 11.5 wins is an enticing bet to make


Jul 26, 2022

With NFL training camps opening all around the league, now is the best time to grab great value on bets in the futures market.

We’ve talked at great length about the New England Patriots season outlook on our NESN shows “Ultimate Betting Show” and “Lunch Line.” And NESN Bets has produced countless articles on how to bet the Patriots.

Now, it’s time to examine how to bet on New England’s AFC East foes. We’ll start with the Super Bowl favored Buffalo Bills. Although Buffalo is the prohibitive favorite to win it all, I don’t think they will. Instead, I have three other ways to bet on the two-time reigning division champion.

Over 11.5 wins -140
The Bills’ season win total is set at 11.5 in most sportsbooks. Only Tom Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers are equal to that number of wins. DraftKings has Buffalo’s Over 11.5 wins set at -140, and that is the bet I’m making. If you look at the Bills’ schedule, there are several primetime games against some of the best teams in the league. Obviously, the Bills can win most, if not all those games. But the reason I’m rolling with the Over here is because of Buffalo’s easier games against the Detroit Lions, Chicago Bears and New York Jets (twice). Those are the games that will get us Over bettors to eclipse the 11.5.

Buffalo’s Week 1 moneyline vs. Rams
The Bills schedule is littered with tantalizing matchups all season, but I have my sights set on Week 1 against the defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams. Currently the game is a pick ’em with both teams at even odds of -110 on the moneyline. The total is set at over/under 52, as well. The season opener is a big one for the Rams as it’s when Matthew Stafford and company will be celebrated for winning the Super Bowl at SoFi Stadium in February. All that pomp and circumstance is exactly why I love the Bills at -110 on the moneyline. First, the Bills will have more fans in that stadium than the Rams do because it’s LA and Buffalo fans are notorious for traveling. I also think the Rams are a veteran team that probably won’t get any extra boost from celebrating pregame. Conversely, I could see the Bills wanting that feeling in their building instead next season.

Josh Allen to win NFL MVP +700
Finally, in addition to the Bills being the favorites to win the Super Bowl, quarterback Josh Allen is favored to win league MVP. DraftKings Sportsbook has the odds set at +700 on Allen, and I’m all over it. Some people suspect Allen might take a step back this season with the departure of offensive coordinator Brian Daboll. I happen to agree with that theory. But we also must remember that Allen is a physical freak at 6-foot-5, 240 pounds and can run like a deer. Because of this, I believe Allen will rely more on his physical attributes this season and run the ball more until the Bills’ offense can settle under new coordinator Ken Dorsey. That dual-threat ability will catapult Allen to becoming the league’s MVP.

Thumbnail photo via Mark Konezny/USA TODAY Sports Images

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