How Oddsmakers View Aaron Judge’s Amazing Quest For Home Run History
Will the Yankees slugger break Roger Maris' mark of 61?
Aaron Judge just keeps hitting home runs.
The New York Yankees slugger connected on another long ball Tuesday night in a 4-2 win over the New York Mets at Yankee Stadium. The blast was Judge’s 48th of the season — in 120 games (529 plate appearances) — and it’s time to really start considering whether he’ll make history in 2022.
The Yankees entered Wednesday’s off-day with 38 games remaining on the schedule. Barry Bonds’ Major League Baseball single-season home run record of 73, set with the San Francisco Giants in 2001, basically is out of reach, unless Judge goes on a tear of epic proportions. But Judge needs just 13 home runs to match Roger Maris’ American League single-season record of 61, set with the Yankees in 1961.
CBS Sports pointed out Thursday that Judge is on pace to hit 63 home runs this season (or 62.7, if we’re splitting hairs). To break Maris’ record, which entails hitting 62, Judge will need to average a home run every 2.71 games from here on out. He’ll need to average a homer every 2.92 games to tie the record.
That’s obviously an impressive pace, but Judge certainly is capable of accomplishing such. After all, he’s hit 15 home runs in 31 games in the second half, despite a season-long nine-game homerless drought he ended Monday against the Mets.
So, where do oddsmakers stand on the home run chase?
DraftKings Sportsbook as of Wednesday night had Judge at +200 to total over 61.5 home runs and -250 to total under 61.5 home runs.
BetMGM had Judge at +200 for over 61.5 and -250 for under 61.5, as well, whereas Caesars offered +270 for over 61.5 and -350 for under 61.5.
As always, it pays to shop around. And your betting destination should depend on the nature of your wager. Why risk $100 for a $200 profit, for example, when you could risk that same $100 for a $270 profit? But one thing is clear: Oddsmakers believe Aaron Judge will far short in his quest to break Maris’ mark with 62 home runs, though the tight odds suggest it’ll be a fascinating finish.
For what it’s worth, DraftKings Sportsbook also had Judge at +2200 to total over 73.5 home runs and -20000 to total under 73.5 home runs, which speaks to the unlikelihood of him breaking Bonds’ MLB single-season record.
