The Baltimore Ravens visiting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is a game the football world had circled on their calendars prior to the season. Now we will have to wait and see if the game is as exciting as the names on the jerseys.
We?ll take a look at one prop for that game and then some teaser legs for the rest of the Week 8 slate. Over the last two weeks, the teaser legs I have given in my articles have gone 5-1. This week I like two dogs on the road. Remember, you need each leg to hit to cash.
Baltimore Ravens at (-3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Lamar Jackson over 60.5 rush yards -115 at BetMGM
Jackson has the highest rush total prop in this matchup for a reason. He ranks fifth in the NFL in rushing yards behind a league-leading 7.7 yards per carry. The fifth-year QB has more rushing yards (510) than the entire Bucs team (451) through the first seven weeks — on 82 fewer rush attempts. Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman are both questionable in this matchup. If they play, I like Baltimore?s chances of keeping this game close. Either way, expect Jackson to use his legs for a shot at a win here. He is averaging almost 73 rushing yards per game and has hit this prop in four of seven matchups so far, missing twice by just 2 and 3 yards. On top of that, the Bucs? run defense isn?t what it has been in the past. They?re average right now, allowing over 118 rushing yards a game. The numbers will tell you the Bucs haven’t given up many rushing attempts to quarterbacks, but that?s also because they haven?t faced a quarterback who?s outperforming more than 84% of starting running backs in the league. Plus, I gave you the numbers on his production in terms of yards per carry — he doesn’t need too many attempts to get over this yardage prop anyways. Take the over.
Teaser leg options:
Remember, a two-team 6-point teaser pays out -120 (make sure to shop around). A three-team 6-point teaser pays out up to +160 (DraftKings).
Washington Commanders +3 to +9 at Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are simply not good enough to cover by over a touchdown. I felt that way with Matt Ryan under center and I feel no different with Sam Ehlinger taking over the starting quarterback role. It?s the 2021 sixth-round pick?s first career NFL start, and I don?t expect the offense to have much chemistry with the new signal-caller who is now leading a team averaging just 16.1 points a game (third-worst) through the first seven weeks. Sure, they have Jonathan Taylor, but Washington also has the fourth-best rush DVOA in the league. On the other side of the ball, Washington?s quarterback Taylor Heinicke may be the backup to an injured Carson Wentz, but the fifth-season quarterback is the one coming off a 23-21 win against Aaron Rodgers. Heinicke didn?t light up the stat sheet, but his team allowed a season-high pressure rate of 51.4% on his dropbacks and he threw for two touchdowns with just one interception ? better than half of Wentz?s starts. I?ll take the more experienced quarterback here coming off a big win. Expect Washington to slow down the Colts run game, force Elingher to make mistakes and keep this one close ? or even go home with the W.
New York Giants +3 to +9 at Seattle Seahawks
If you told me this matchup would be the only one in Week 8 where both teams were above .500, I would call you crazy, but here we are. Brian Daboll is proving he was the right choice for the Giants head coaching job, leading his team to a 6-1 start, including recent wins against the Ravens and Packers. They are 3-0 straight up and against the spread on the road so far, currently riding a four-game winning streak. The team ranks second in rush yards per game (173.4) and are now facing a Seahawks defense allowing third most rush yards a game (149.7).
However, I do see why the home team is favored. The Seahawks are on top of NFC West right now, with a 4-3 record, which is a bit less impressive. However, I?m a numbers girl, and there is no denying the Seahawks offense — third in total DVOA and top five in pass DVOA — is legit. Do keep in mind, they?re not 100% healthy, including one of their best offensive weapons in DK Metcalf, who did not practice this week after being carted off Sunday with a knee injury. Keep an eye on that injury report. Unfortunately, the Giants defense doesn?t show up well on paper. However, we aren?t betting the Giants to win, just cover. I think their offense will lead them to do just that. New York ranks seventh in total DVOA on offense which means they should keep things close against a Seattle defense that ranks below average in overall DVOA.
