Chicago Blackhawks vs. Dallas Stars Preview and Picks

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Feb 22, 2023

The Chicago Blackhawks will be featured on the nationally televised Wednesday night hockey game for the second week in a row. This time they are taking on their division rivals, the Dallas Stars.

Analytically, the Hawks have been one of the worst teams in the NHL this year, reflected in their outcomes. Scheduling woes could compound those issues as they compete on the second night of a back-to-back.

Blackhawks @ Stars Game Information
  • Location: American Airlines Center | Dallas, TX
  • Time: 9:30 pm ET | TV: TNT

Chicago emptied the tank against the Vegas Golden Knights last night, giving the Pacific Division leaders everything they could handle. The Blackhawks scored with less than a minute to go in regulation, eventually securing victory in the shootout.

Still, the Hawks were outplayed for the fifth time in six games and hopped on a flight to Dallas immediately after the contest. Now, they’ll have to contend with the Central Division-leading Stars, who are looking to snap a four-game losing skid.

Blackhawks @ Stars Odds on FanDuel
  • Spread: Blackhawks +2.5 (-134) | Stars -2.5 (+110)
  • Moneyline: Blackhawks +330 | Stars -430
  • Total: Over 6 (-108) | Under 6 (-112)

The Hawks have seen an increase in scoring over their past few games, but that surge is contraindicated in their metrics. Chicago has been limited to nine or fewer high-danger chances in all but one of their past seven, averaging 8.6 across that stretch.

They will unlikely see a boost in their production metrics against the Stars. Dallas has held its opponents to nine or fewer quality opportunities in ten straight contests, with a rolling average of 7.5.

However, we can’t look past the Stars’ recent downturn in their offensive metrics. The Central Division leaders have been limited to a combined 15 high-danger and 61 scoring chances over their last three games. Predictably, this has negatively impacted output, with the Stars recording just four goals across those three outings.

Nevertheless, the Stars are the superior team, catching the Blackhawks in a bad spot scheduling-wise. The hosts should be ready to break out against the tired and overworked Hawks.

Blackhawks @ Stars Picks
  • Under 6 (-112) | Stars -430
  • Jason Robertson Anytime Goal Scorer (+105)

If the Stars are going to snap out of their funk, they are going to need their superstars to lead the way. Queue Jason Robertson, the team’s leading goal scorer, and point-getter, who also has some dynamite analytics. 

Robertson leads all Stars forwards in scoring and high-danger opportunitiesaveraging 9.3 and 4.1, respectively. He’s maintained that production over his recent sample, with Robertson recording multiple shots in eight straight games. Still, he’s found the back of the net just twice over that sample, resulting in a 7.7 shooting percentage

So far this season, Robertson is tallying on 15.4% of his shots, double what we’ve seen from him lately. Moreover, he’s even further off his career-best pace of 18.6% from last year. That makes Robertson a natural progression candidate and a worthy investment to score a goal.

Thumbnail photo via Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

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