Bucks vs. Heat Series Preview: No One Is Stopping Giannis

Two years removed from a championship, Milwaukee quietly put together the best season of any other team in the NBA. They finished with a 70.7% win rate, good for first in the entire league.

Now, after Miami made it through the play-in tournament, the Bucks will face the Heat in the first round of the playoffs. It is the third time over the last three seasons these two will match up in the postseason. Milwaukee swept the Heat last time these two played in the first round, in 2021, when the Bucks won the chip.

Despite splitting the season series with two wins a piece, “Cream City” are still -1200 favorites to advance to the Conference Semis on the FanDuel Sportsbook.

Led by Mike Budenholzer, the Milwaukee Bucks have won their division for five straight years. They finished this season with a 58-24 record, going 35-17 in inter-conference play. It is the third time over the past five years they finished with the top seed in the league. They achieved all this while missing Khris Middleton for most of the season. The 31-year-old only played 33 games this year, averaging his lowest minutes per game (24) over the past decade.

Miami, on the other hand, are coming off a disappointing season. A year removed from the Eastern Conference Finals, the Heat underperformed with a 44-38 record. They were abysmal away from home with a 17-24 record and finished with a bottom-five offensive rating (by far the worst of any playoff team). It didn’t help that the team was hit with the injury bug all season. Bam Adebayo was the only starter to play more than 70 games.

These two teams have faced each other thrice in the playoffs, with Miami holding the advantage by winning two of those series. The two teams split their season set with two games apiece this season. However, Giannis Antetokounmpo basically missed three of those four games.

Middleton, Pat Connaughton, Grayson Allen, and A.J. Green are all game-time decisions for Game 1 but are expected to play. The rest of the squad is healthy, which has been a rarity all season. The biggest issue surrounding the Bucks is that their big three have not played many minutes together. Giannis, Jrue Holiday, and Khris Middleton played 236 minutes together this year, appearing together in just 25 games. Middleton was a starter in only half of those. It’ll be interesting to see how long it takes for the stars to get their chemistry up to speed and whether or not Middleton will actually return to form this postseason.

Miami is also fully healthy for what seems to be the first time in 2023. Nikola Jovic is the only game-time decision on the report, but he is expected to return from his long-term absence at some point this series.

It’s easy to say Giannis vs. whoever the Heat put up against him will be the crucial matchup between these two teams. But that is not the case here. The Greek Freak is unstoppable and will not be the main focus of Miami’s defensive game plan because they have no one to stop him.

The real focus will be on slowing everyone around him down. Jrue Holiday is coming off the second-best offensive season of his career and will probably be guarded by Jimmy Butler down the stretch. This battle between two of the best two-way guards in the league is undoubtedly the key matchup of the series.

Also, you can’t forget about Brook Lopez. The 35-year-old plays his best basketball in a Bucks jersey and will be a handful for Miami’s defense. Bam Adebayo has to figure out how to defend Lopez, one of the best in the league at creating space on the floor. Adebayo has to stay out of foul trouble because he is the only one on Miami’s roster who can help slow down Giannis and Lopez.

At -1200 to qualify for the next round, this is Milwaukee’s series to lose. They possess too much skill on both sides of the floor for Miami to overcome. Furthermore, the Bucks have the best player in the world on the roster in, Giannis. The 28-year-old is coming off an MVP-caliber season in which he recorded a career-high 31.1 points per game.

To make things worse for a Miami team that struggles to score, they are coming up against a top-five defense in the league. Both Anterokounmpo and Lopez finished top five in the Defensive Player of the Year conversation.

• Correct Score After 3 Games: Bucks 3-0 (+148)
• Game 1/Series Double: Milwaukee Bucks/Milwaukee Bucks (-300)

I genuinely believe the Bucks will wipe the floor with Miami once again. My favorite bet of the series is either the Bucks to start 3-0 (+148) or the Bucks to sweep at (+290). Miami does not match up well against this squad and have not seen Giannis much this season. The one time they did? He dropped a 35-point triple-double en route to a win. He will pick these guys apart.

Milwaukee are dominant at home with a 32-9 record in Wisconsin. They should quickly go up 2-0 after the first two games, and betting on them to take both Game 1 and win the series is free money.

If the Atlanta Hawks can make a mockery out of this Heat team – you can count on the Bucks to do even more damage.