UFC Vegas 71: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes Preview & Best Bets

A top-five heavyweight bout headlines UFC Vegas 71 as No. 3 Sergei Pavlovich faces No. 4, Curtis Blaydes.

• Date: Saturday, April 22, 2023 | Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
• Venue: UFC Apex – Enterprise, Nevada | TV: ESPN2

Bobby “King” Green looks to bounce a two-fight losing skid against Jared “Flash” Gordon. Green has four losses over his last six fights but has recent wins over Clay Guida, Lando Vannata, Alan Patrick, and Al Iaquinta. Gordon lost his previous fight to Paddy Pimblett, which many observers thought was the wrong decision. However, he has four wins over his last six, beating Chris Fishgold, Danny Chavez, Joe Solecki, and Leonardo Santos.

Green is an inch taller and will have a three-inch reach advantage. He’s a frustrating striker to watch, being a talented boxer who can fight orthodox or south-paw but slips and rolls with his hands low. Green tends to fight down to his opponent’s skill level, while Gordon is more likely to rise to a challenge. Both fighters land many significant strikes, with Green at 5.99 and Gordon at 5.37, but King absorbs 0.45 more. There isn’t a massive difference in their grappling, Gordon attempts 0.77 more takedowns, but Green has a 72 percent takedown defense rate.

Green might be the more talented of the two fighters, but his seeming lack of motivation could hand a decision to Gordon. At +370, Flash is a live dog to win by points.

Former Ultimate Fighter 11 runner-up Brad Tavares takes on Bruno “Blindado” Silva. Tavares has been fighting under the UFC banner since 2010, going 15-6. Silva is coming off two losses but had a run of seven knockouts before that (three UFC).

Tavares is an inch taller, but both fighters have a 74-inch reach. Silva relies heavily on his power, with 86 percent of his wins coming by knockout or technical knockout. Tavares is more likely to win by a decision but has spent far more time at the UFC level. He isn’t great at anything but is good at everything. Tavares is a model of consistency, a considerable advantage against Silva, who didn’t look good in his last fight.

At +195, Tavares to win by points has value in this bout.

• Sergei Pavlovich vs. Curtis Blaydes
• Odds to Win: Pavlovich +140 | Blaydes -180
• How Will Fight End: KO/TKO -490 | Submission +750 | Decision +700
• Will the fight go the distance? Yes +710 | No -1300

Sergei Pavlovich will look to make it six straight knockouts when he enters the cage opposite Curtis “Razor” Blaydes. Pavlovich entered the UFC in 2018, losing the only fight in his career to Alistair Overeem by TKO. Blaydes is riding a three-fight win streak, having dropped only three bouts in his career to Derrick Lewis and Francis Ngannou twice.

Blaydes is one inch taller, but Pavlovich will have a four-inch reach advantage. Both fighters get most of their wins by KO/TKO at 82 and 71 percent. However, Pavlovich should have a considerable power advantage, averaging 6.67 knockdowns per 15 minutes to Blaydes’s 0.2. Pavlovich also lands an astounding 4.53 more significant strikes per minute. Blaydes’s edge is in grappling, averaging 6.05 takedowns per minute. Pavlovich isn’t impossible to takedown but has a respectable defense rate of 66 percent.

Chances are this fight doesn’t make it out of the first round, but if it does, the likelihood it goes to a decision increases significantly. If Pavlovich can defend Blaydes’s early takedowns and Razor respects Pavlovich’s power, they could be in for a long night. There are several angles to look at in this fight, Pavlovich by KO/TKO at +185, Blaydes by decision at +1000, or the fight going the distance at +710. All three outcomes have value, but Blaydes by decision is just too tempting.

• Jared Gordon by decision (+370)
• Brad Tavares by decision (+195)
• Blaydes by decision (+1000)

Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook