Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Spread, Line, Odds, Predictions, Picks and Betting Preview
It’s time for some serious National League East action as the Philadelphia Phillies square off against the Atlanta Braves. Despite the Braves (-153) being favorites on their home turf, I’m going to let you in on a little secret: The Phillies could very well have this one in the bag.
The pitching matchup today sees Jared Shuster of the Braves up against the Phillies’ Taijuan Walker. No contest there – Shuster’s arguably one of the most underwhelming pitchers this season. With only 40 batters faced over the last 30 days, his 30% ground ball rate doesn’t inspire much confidence. That means 70% of contact off him results in line drives or fly balls – hardly the recipe for a winning pitcher.
The Phillies need to capitalize on Shuster’s weaknesses. But their record over the past 30 days against left-handed pitching? Not exactly awe-inspiring. Trea Turner’s .275 wOBA, Bryce Harper’s .184, Nick Castellanos’ .226, Kyle Schwarber’s .273, JT Realmuto’s .269, and Edmundo Sosa’s .259 are a few of the figures that could use some improvement.
Over in the Braves’ corner, we’ve got Walker on the mound. Against lefties, Walker has been taking a beating with a wOBA of .399 and an ISO power number of .278. Could this be the chink in the Phillies’ armor that the Braves need to exploit?
There’s one Brave, in particular, who could turn the tide – Matt Olson. With a .309 ISO power number and a wOBA of .386 against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days, Olson is definitely the lefty to watch out for tonight. Eddie Rosario and Michael Harris, the other lefties in the lineup, haven’t been as effective. With Ozzie Albies’ .072 ISO power number and a wOBA of .212, it’s clear he’s been struggling at the plate against righties.
As we wait for the first pitch, I’m inclined to give the edge to the Phillies (+131). Their bats should come alive against Shuster, and while their record against left-handed pitching hasn’t been stellar, facing Schuster might just be the wake-up call they need. Meanwhile, if you’re betting on someone to steal the show tonight, from a prop perspective, my money’s on Olson.
| Spread | Total | Moneyline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies | +1.5 | -158 | O 9.5 | -110 | +126 | Open |
| -146 | 10 | -117 | +131 | Current | ||
| Braves | -1.5 | +133 | U 9.5 | -110 | -147 | Open |
| +123 | 10 | -103 | -153 | Current | ||
Phillies
Starting Pitcher: Taijuan Walker: 3-2, 5.79 ERA, 8.10 K/9
| 1. | 2B | Bryson Stott | .289, 5 HR, 20 RBI |
| 2. | SS | Trea Turner | .244, 5 HR, 13 RBI |
| 3. | DH | Bryce Harper | .347, 3 HR, 7 RBI |
| 4. | RF | Nick Castellanos | .294, 5 HR, 26 RBI |
| 5. | LF | Kyle Schwarber | .172, 12 HR, 25 RBI |
| 6. | C | J.T. Realmuto | .277, 3 HR, 17 RBI |
| 7. | 1B | Alec Bohm | .269, 6 HR, 37 RBI |
| 8. | CF | Dalton Guthrie | .133, 0 HR, 0 RBI |
| 9. | 3B | Edmundo Sosa | .268, 3 HR, 11 RBI |
Braves
Starting Pitcher: Jared Shuster: 1-2, 5.49 ERA, 6.86 K/9
| 1. | RF | Ronald Acuña Jr. | .332, 11 HR, 27 RBI |
| 2. | 1B | Matt Olson | .235, 14 HR, 37 RBI |
| 3. | C | Sean Murphy | .274, 10 HR, 36 RBI |
| 4. | 3B | Austin Riley | .264, 9 HR, 26 RBI |
| 5. | LF | Eddie Rosario | .233, 5 HR, 17 RBI |
| 6. | 2B | Ozzie Albies | .259, 10 HR, 32 RBI |
| 7. | DH | Marcell Ozuna | .222, 10 HR, 21 RBI |
| 8. | SS | Orlando Arcia | .313, 4 HR, 13 RBI |
| 9. | CF | Michael Harris II | .165, 1 HR, 6 RBI |
Phillies
- The over hit in 3 of the Philadelphia Phillies last 5 games on the road in 2023
Braves
- The over hit in 18 of the Atlanta Braves last 26 games at home in 2023
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